Kelly Pavlik vs Marco Antonio Rubio Fight Preview
This weekend will mark the return of Kelly Pavlik to the middleweight division. It will also mark his return to his hometown, as he will be fighting in Youngstown, Ohio. He will be facing hard hitting challenger Marco Antonio Rubio, a fighter many consider the perfect comeback opponent for The Ghost, who suffered his first defeat at the hands of Bernard Hopkins last October.
It wasn't just a loss, it was a one-sided schooling that could have left Pavlik a changed fighter. However, in Marco Antonio Rubio he faces a fighter that will be there all night for him to line up with his thudding 1-2 combinations.
Pavlik of course rose to fame with his devastating knockout of then middleweight champion Jermain Taylor. However, since then, Pavlik has not truly been what one could call the middleweight champion. He rematched Taylor at a catch weight of 166 pounds, then made a defense of the titles against unheralded, glorified club fighter, Gary Lockett. Next came the loss against Hopkins, again at a catch weight, this time 170 pounds.
Meet The Fighters
Kelly "The Ghost" Pavlik
34 (30) – 1
Height: 6'2" Reach: 75"
WBC & WBO Middleweight Champion
Marco Antonio Rubio
43 (37) – 4 – 1
Height: 6'1" Reach: 76"
WBC Number 1 Challenger
Pavlik vs Rubio Prediction
Over the course of his career, as Pavlik has knocked out and disposed of the vast majority of his opponents (an 86% KO rate), he has also shown some susceptibility to the power of his opponents. Taylor almost knocked him out before he met the same fight, and Pavlik has it the canvas against several other opponents.
This is the one chance that Rubio has to pull off the huge upset against the heavily favored champion. Rubio, with a 77% KO rate (a near identical 86% KO rate in his wins), is known for his fight changing power. And while Pavlik is rebounding from a physically and emotionally tough loss, Rubio should be coming into the ring confident, winner of his past nine fights.
However, Rubio has never been able to win his step up fights. He has always been able to take care of the fellow, middle of the road contender with his power punching. However, his step ups, against the likes of Kassim Ouma and Kofi Jantuah have resulted in losses. Since losing two fights back to back, including the Ouma bout, Rubio moved up to middleweight and has gone undefeated. His wins there include a 7th round knockout over former Pavlik opponent Jose Luis Zertuche, whom Pavlik finished in 8 rounds.
> Be sure to check out the entire selection of Affliction clothing & apparel and the great boxing equipment here at Pro Fighting Fans!
Will Rubio be able to land a game changer against Pavlik? His chances are slim, because not only will he be facing equally daunting power in return, he will have to get his punches through Pavlik's long jab. If he can apply his own jab, and mix up his punches, he may be able to catch a tentative Pavlik early. He would have to be able to finish the job quickly, as Pavlik has shown the ability to recover from being hurt, as in the Taylor fight.
Pavlik may start the fight off slowly in his first trip back to the ring since the Hopkins defeat. But with his raucous hometown fans behind him, expect Pavlik to begin heating up quickly. His classic 1-2's will start finding their mark, and Rubio will have trouble trying to land his own shots in return. As Pavlik gains confidence, the contest will look more like firing practice for the champion than a hotly contested boxing match. After 8 rounds, expect Pavlik to win the fight by TKO.
If Pavlik wants to regain his status in the boxing community, next up must be fellow middleweight titleholder Arthur Abraham. Another blowout opponent, or another trip above the middleweight limit of 160 lbs, will be met with plenty of skepticism and criticism from the boxing faithful.
By Jake Emen
ProFighting-fans.com Staff Writer & Director of Boxing Content