Cain’s Able but Junior’s Mint

Proof that Brock Lesnar was doomed in his fight against Velasquez was that I was cheering for Lesnar for a change, not because I’m a fan but because Lesnar seemed to have matured. I loathe revolving door championships and I thought Lesnar was going to keep the belt for a spell. Give me someone who can defend his crown. But Cain went through Lesnar like a mongoose through a cobra and afterwards, when asked about a future matchup with ‘Fists of Stone’ Junior dos Santos, Velasquez admitted the Brazilian is the better striker. What more could I want from a champion than a brutal yet humble man?

A Cain Velasquez-Junior dos Santos match confuses me, but many things do. I’ve loved dos Santos from his first UFC fight because I know the Nog-trained fighter can excel on the ground but uses his agility and ground knowledge to keep it standing, where he implements perhaps the best boxing in the UFC (sorry BJ). Fortunately for dos Santos, I now like Velasquez and I hope he keeps the title for a while, which pretty much ensures dos Santos will win. Hear that gamblers? If you want to win lots of money off fights, read my column and bet against me.

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Velasquez and dos Santos are quite similar. Cain is listed at 6’2”, 244, and is a wrestler-kick boxer; dos Santos is listed as 6’3”, 245, and is a BJJ-boxer. Junior’s record is 12-1, 6-0 in the UFC, with 4 TKOs in that promotion and one dominant decision against Roy Nelson. Cain’s record is 9-0, 7-0 in the UFC, with only one fight going to decision versus Cheick Kongo. Junior dos Santos’ UFC TKO victims were Fabrico Verdum, Stefan Struve, Gilbert Yvel and Gabriel Gonzoga. Cro Cop verbally submitted to strikes. Velasquez’s victims in the UFC were Brad Morris, Jake O’Brien, Denis Stojnik, Ben Rothwell, Big Nog and, last but not in the least the least, Lesnar.

Both dos Santos and Velasquez are heavyweights in the UFC who somehow haven't one common opponent, yet their list of challengers has the same affect on my cranium: some lower echelon tin cans, a few mid-level tests, a couple of top ten opponents and a fight or two each where questions were raised. In dos Santos’ case, his inability to take out Roy Nelson, and in Velasquez’s case his inability to finish Kongo, which Mir did easily, as well as his inability to KO Rothwell in spite of utter domination. The obvious difference is Cain's destruction of Lesnar and the belt he now holds.

Similar height, similar size, similar application of somewhat different skill sets, comparable outcomes with similar opponents, devastating speed and power on their feet, extensive ground games and amazing agility for men who tip the Toledos circa 245. Both fighters can probably trace their lineage to the European landmass south of the Pyrenees. Both men are almost impossible to hold down. This is where things will get sticky for Cain. Follow my logic.

Although the Mexican-American UFC heavyweight champion is a stellar MMA kick boxer thanks to his AKA gym, dos Santos is better with his hands, and not just a little bit. While I give the edge to Cain with kicks, he is going to find kicking dos Santos very difficult. The Brazilian applies great distance and movement. When Velasquez meets dos Santos it is the latter who will master the distance and timing. Suddenly the AKA standout’s striking will not seem so crushing. But CV knows this, doesn’t he, and isn’t humility and the ability to see one’s relative shortcomings the most important trait a fighter can have? I digress.

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Both fighters possess other crucial traits, namely calm patience and mental toughness. They’re going to need it because it’s likely the winner will have to overcome some form of difficulty: dos Santos has a air-popping jab to the breastplate that may wind and stifle Cain’s attack, and Cain has a leg kick that, if applied, could alter dos Santos’ bloodflow and give the movement advantage to Valesquez.

Junior dos Santos also holds an edge in submission capability so that if Cain does take and keep dos Santos down the champ will have to deal with a Nog-trained BJJ expert (I don’t care what color damn dos Santos’ damn belt is). Look for that to be a factor in the fight as well. Ground and pounders can’t ground or pound so much when they’re trying to save their arm from snapping in two.

For what it’s worth, here’s my breakdown:

Size -equal

Strength -equal

Hands -dos Santos by a country mile

Shins -Velasquez by a country mile

Footwork -dos Santos by a country kilometre

Wrestling -Valesquez obviously

BJJ -dos Santos obviously

Clinch -equal

Camp -dos Santos –call me crazy, but any camp that includes the Nogs and A. Silva is top dog.

When I parcel out the above categories dos Santos comes out with a slight edge. But whoever wins the fight, look for the advantage to be obvious early. Regarding my distaste for revolving door champions, is it safe to say the winner of this fight WILL hold the belt for at least four defenses? I think so. So if you’re a gambler reading this, go to your bookie now and bet 1, 2, 3, 5 defenses...anything but four. When you win, don’t forget poor Renko, a man who has the unenviable task of trying to pick between two of the best heavyweights imaginable at this stage in the UFC's evolution.

By Renko Styranka
ProFighting-fans.com MMA Staff Writer