2010 NCAA Wrestling Divisional Analysis

This year, NCAA wrestling is going strong and the sport has a good balance of great folkstyle competitors and interesting human-interest pieces. Covering ten divisions can take a while, but it’s definitely worth it, as there’s a great talent pool this year, and all of the divisions are competitive, even with heavy favorites at the top. So, let’s start with the big boys and work down.

Heavyweights

Of the big men, the most exciting at the moment is Oklahoma State University’s Jared Rosholt (for those MMA fans out there, his older brother is three time NCAA champion and UFC veteran Jake). Jared is a two time All-American and finished third in the NCAA tournament last year. Jared is having a fantastic season and is considered the top wrestler by many experts. Of course, not to be overlooked is returning champion Mark Ellis, of the University of Missouri.

Also in the race is Iowa State University behemoth David Zabriskie. Zabriskie was the #1 seed heading into last year’s tournament, but was eliminated in the semi-finals and then again in the semi-final match of the consolation bracket, but when he’s on, he’s on, and if Zabriskie performs in the tournament the way he can in the regular season, the two-time Big 12 champion can definitely make a huge showing.

-197 lbs

Just like last season, there are really only two relevant names in this division: Jake Varner and Craig Brester. Varner is a senior at Iowa State and the returning NCAA champion and Brester was last season’s #1 seed, who ended up losing to Varner in the finals. Both are looking to be at the top of the division again this year. Iowa’s Chad Beatty, who missed last season with a serious injury, will likely be in the mix, but he’s not likely to finish higher than third, even if he stays healthy.

Cornell sophomore Cam Simaz is a name to watch for the future, but (again) probably not going to be taking home an NCAA title. Brester and Varner seem like a pretty prohibitive #1 and #2 at this point in the season.

-184 lbs

The 184 pound division has some great senior competitors, with Missouri’s Max Askren (younger brother of two-time NCAA champion Ben Askren) having a strong season in his new home (he competed at -197 last season). Illinois’ John Dergo is also a serious competitor in the division. He’ll be looking to make his fourth tournament appearance in four years. He had his first winning record in the NCAA tournament last season (going 3-2) and will probably improve upon that this year.

Of course, the favorite this year looks like Kent State sophomore Dustin Kilgore. He redshirted the ’07-’08 season, but posted a 27-1 record wrestling independently. Last season, as a freshman, he won the mid-Atlantic conference by was outclassed by a number of wrestlers from bigger wrestling schools and was knocked out of the NCAA tournament pretty early. It looks like he’s improved a lot, though, and should make a very strong showing at the NCAA championship this year.

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-174 lbs

Iowa’s Jay Borschell didn’t have the best showing at the NCAA championship last season, but he’s having a big year and as a senior who saw most of his toughest competition graduate last year, he’s in good shape for this season. Mack Lewnes, a junior out of Cornell, is having a strong year and will definitely make an appearance at the NCAA tournament, but it’s hard to gauge how well he’ll do against the Midwestern wrestlers.

University of Virginia’s Chris Henrich is in a similar position to Lewnes. A lot of people are ranking him highly at this point in the season, but with so many great wrestlers in the Midwest, it’s not really clear if Henrich is going to be able to take the guys from the major teams, like Borschell, on the big stage.

-165 lbs

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The division is pretty competitive this year. Last year #12 seed Jarrod King came out of nowhere to the win the NCAA championship. However, most of the guys he was up against last year are back and looking as good as ever. Wisconsin’s Andrew Howe (the #2 seed who King beat in the finals of last year’s tournament) is back for another year and considered by many the top wrestler in the country at this point in the season.

Iowa State’s Jon Reader, who fell to King in the semi-finals and finished fourth overall, is back as well, as is third place finisher Ryan Morningstar (a senior out of Iowa). King and Morningstar are both seniors, while Howe (a sophomore) and Reader (a junior) will both continue to compete in an unpredictable division.

-157 lbs

The divisions without dominant wrestlers competing out of dominant franchises are tough to call, if for no other reason than the smaller schools compete in divisions where the level of competition is inconsistent. It makes me uncertain of competitors like Harvard’s J.P. O’Connor (a #5 seed at last year’s tournament who finished lower than eighth). Most of the tougher competitors O’Connor faced last season in the tournament are gone, though, but it’s still hard to predict him living up to the expectations of those calling him the #1 wrestler in the weightclass.

Virginia Tech sophomore Jesse Dong presents similar problems. He’s 23-2 at this point in the season, but it’s not clear how he’s going to stack up. The division isn’t bringing in many serious wrestlers from major divisions, though, which may work in favor of O’Connor, who has the most tournament experience of a pretty strong division. Of course, Chase Pami (of Cal Poly) beat O’Connor in the loser’s bracket of least years tournament, and there’s a distinct possibility he could do it again, this time in a more high profile portion of the event.

-149 lbs

Iowa senior Brent Metcalf looks like a prohibitive favorite to win the weightclass this season but, then again, he looked like a solid favorite to win last year when he was upset by #3 seed Darrion Caldwell in the finals. Caldwell isn’t returning this season, though, which is a good sign for Metcalf, who’s been nothing short of phenomenal so far. His toughest competition will likely be in the form of Kyle Ruschell (the #5 seed last season who took the loser’s bracket to finish third) and Lance Palmer, who beat Ruschell in the quarterfinals before losing to Metcalf in the semis.

There are a few interesting dark horse prospects. Penn State sophomore Frank Molinaro looks interesting; he finished eighth in the -141 weightclass last season, but has moved up to take on bigger guys. Oklahoma’s Kyle Terry is a pretty tough competitor as well, as is Iowa State senior Mitch Mueller. But it’s hard to see anyone taking this division away from Brent Metcalf.

-141 lbs

There’s a lot of hype floating around Cornell freshman Kyle Dake, who’s been a phenomenal competitor throughout his high school career, and may very well take the #1 seed in the tournament this year. Still, sometimes experience is a major factor, and in a division where Dake is definitely the nubile, it’s worth looking at other competitors, like Ohio State senior Reece Humphrey, who came up to 141 after finishing second at 133 pounds last season. Humphrey will look to keep the 141 pound division title for Ohio State, after teammate (and now coach) J Jaggers defended his title in last years tournament.

Filip Novachkov of Cal Poly is a tough competitor and has had some absolutely devastating wins, but competing against veterans from major programs is going to be tough, when his team hasn’t really put together a whole lot of high-level support in competition.Novachkov competed at 133 last season, and did well until he was beated by #1 seed an eventual tournament winner Franklin Gomez and then dropped his first match in the loser’s bracket to finish 2-2.It’s not basketball or football, but having the team to work you harder in the gym definitely matters. Mike Thorn, a junior out of Minnesota, has come up to compete at 141. Last year Thorn was seeded at #10, but was upset by an unranked competitor and didn’t finish in the top eight.

-133 lbs

Returning champion and last season’s #1 seed Franklin Gomez (of Michigan State) should not be underestimated. With #2 seed Reece Humphrey moving up to 141, his primary opponent will likely be last season’s third place finisher Jayson Ness (of Minnesota). Ness is a tough competitor, and performed very well entering the NCAA tournament last year as a #6 seed. There are some who have Ness ahead of Gomez at this point in the season, but as the year draws to a close and the tournament comes together, Gomez will take his place as the favorite to win the weightclass.

Iowa’s Daniel Dennis, who was a #4 seed coming into the tournament last year but finished an underwhelming seventh, will likely make a run at the championship again, as will Andrew Hochstrasser of Boise State (the #5 seed who knocked Dennis into the loser’s bracket and finished fourth overall).

-125 lbs

Of the little guys, the current king is unclear, but defending champion Troy Nickerson (of Cornell) is definitely towards the top of the mix. Nickerson is a serious competitor and came out of the #2 seed to beat #1 seed Paul Donahoe (a former champion from University of Nebraska who transferred to Edinborough after receiving money in exchange for nude photos).

Indiana’s Angel Escobedo, who was the #3 seed last year, but finished fifth, is also a tough competitor, as are two freshmen, Matt McDonough and Andrew Long, of Iowa and Iowa State (respectively). Nickerson seems like a solid favorite in the division, but Escobedo is poised for an upset, and when freshman like McDonough, coming out of legendary programs, seem like a threat in the division, there’s always a chance that they can put on a huge performance and upset the seniors.

Team Championship

While Oklahoma State is the historical dynasty in NCAA, the powerhouse since the mid-70s has been Iowa and the surprisingly consistent dark horse is Minnesota. What’s worth noting about collegiate wrestling is that individual competitors matter less than tracking the dynasties through recent history. One of those three schools has taken home the team title every year since 1988, and this year doesn’t look like it’s going to be different.

Iowa is on a roll this season. They’re 16-0 and while they’re only 11 points ahead of Iowa State in the NCAA rankings, it’s a good bet that Oklahoma State and Ohio State will start to pick up some ground at Iowa State’s expense. Iowa isn’t a prohibitive favorite to win this season. Anything can happen, but they’re definitely in great position and as they’ll have at least a few big finishes in individual competition to keep the spotlight on them, they shouldn’t have trouble taking home the team title this season.

By Josh Stein
ProFighting-fans.com Staff Writer