Strikeforce: Fedor vs. Hendo

It’s been a rough stretch for your resident guru after back to back shaky handicapping performances at the UFC Live 4 and UFC 132 events with a combined record over those events of just 3-3. The 1-2 mark at UFC 132 was especially disappointing with both picks on the main card, Wanderlei Silva and Urijah Faber, going down in flames and dropped my record for the year to 34-16-1 (67%) which just a month ago was topping the seventy percent mark. Well we’re leaving that in the past and getting back on the horse for the Strikeforce: Fedor vs. Hendo card coming up this Saturday night at the Sears Centre Arena in Chicago, IL. This event marks the return of the previously dominant pound for pound king of the sport, Fedor Emelianenko, after suffering his 2 nd straight loss in devastating fashion against Antonio “Giant” Silva in February. It’s hard to believe that the former undefeated Emelianenko who hadn’t lost a fight during the entire first decade of his career hasn’t won a fight since 2009. He will try to rectify that when he takes on the newly crowned Strikeforce light heavyweight champion Dan Henderson in a heavyweight bout. There are some really attractive plays on the main card, mostly of veteran fighters against younger favorites so it could be a very profitable night if the lines continue to hold. Without further ado let’s breakdown the main card:

• Scott “Hands of Steel” Smith vs. Tarec “Sponge” Saffiedine – The crafty and heavy handed veteran Smith comes into this fight having lost 3 of his last 4 fights which sounds worse than it really is when you consider the losses were to Nick Diaz, Cung Le, and Paul Daley. His one win in that time frame was also against Cung Le so it’s not like he hasn’t been facing upper echelon competition over the last 2 years. There is no secret or surprises in Smith’s game. He wants to stand and trade with his opponents and avoid any prolonged periods of grappling. “Hands of Steel” is a particularly apt nickname as Smith has lights out power in both hands resulting in 14 of his 17 career professional victories coming via TKO/KO. When you couple that with his toughness, heart, and experience he is a difficult matchup especially for a younger fight like Saffiedine.

Saffiedine is a young 24yr old fighter that is coming off a loss at Strikeforce Challengers 13 back in January to Tyron Woodley. Woodley, who is also competing in this card, was his toughest test to date in his career and he lost a unanimous decision. The loss was to a powerful wrestler that he was just not equipped well enough to deal with. Smith certainly poses a completely different set of challenges. Saffiedine will no doubt want to get the fight to the mat early and often and put his submission skills to good use. Half of his 10 career wins have come via submission but none over his last six fights which have seen him go 4-2. The big question in this fight will be if the “Sponge” can quickly and consistently secure takedowns of Smith and either work his submission game or look to grind out a decision from top position. Saffiedine hasn’t faced great competition in his young career and certainly has never been in the cage with a striker of Smith’s caliber and power. Something tells me he could be in for a rude awakening in this fight.

Pick – Smith via 2nd round TKO. I think Smith will be cautious in the opening minutes guarding against potential takedowns but he will clip Saffiedine with a power shot early in the 2nd round and finish him.

Handicapping Play – Smith +190. An excellent value play for the crafty veteran Smith.

• Paul “Semtex” Daley vs. Tyron “T-Wood” Woodley – The English bomber Daley is coming off a thrilling fight against Nick Diaz back in April which was a punch for punch war that saw Daley hurt Diaz early in the fight but ultimately lose via TKO at the end of the 1 st round. Daley, like Scott Smith, has dynamite in both hands especially his left hook which could seemingly knockout a horse. He’s very athletic with fast hands and over the last 2 years is 8-2, with the two losses being to Josh Koscheck and Nick Diaz both arguably top 5 welterweights in the world. This is a difficult matchup for him given Woodley’s strength and powerful wrestling and grappling prowess. If Daley has sufficiently worked on his takedown defense and can keep the fight standing then the advantage certainly swings in his favor given his superior striking technique and the power to knock out any welterweight in the division.

Woodley, the American Top Team product, is a perfect 8-0 during his young career and is coming off a unanimous decision win over the previously mentioned Saffiedine back in January. His strengths in wrestling and grappling are no secret and they will have to serve him well in this fight against the most skilled and seasoned fighter he has faced up to this point in his career. Standing and trading with Daley would be a recipe for disaster and I’m quite sure he and his camp are well aware of that. He will hold a strength advantage over Daley in this fight and as long as he can stay out of range of Daley’s strikes and effectively set up his takedown attempts he should find quite a bit of success. If Woodley gets Daley to the mat it will be an enormous task for Daley to get back to his feet.

Pick – Woodley via 1st round submission. This is a terrible matchup for Daley and once Woodley takes him down it will just be a matter of time until he either submits or wears him down enough to get the stoppage

Handicapping Play – Woodley -285. A fair price for Woodley but as always watch the line and don’t take the fight at anything over -325.

• ”Ruthless” Robbie Lawler vs. Tim Kennedy – Lawler comes into this fight after a hard fought loss in his title shot against Strikeforce middleweight champion Ronaldo Souza in January. Lawler rocked the BJJ ace Souza early and often in that fight but eventually succumbed to a submission in the 3 rd round to one of the best BJJ practitioners the sport has ever seen. His striking technique and power with both his hands and legs are exceptional. However, his Achilles heel during his career has been his grappling game and has led to 5 of his 7 career losses coming by way of submission. That could certainly come to haunt him in this fight if he can’t keep it standing and finish Kennedy with strikes.

Tim Kennedy is a well-rounded fighter whose last 4 wins have all come via submission, with the only loss during that stretch being a unanimous decision loss to the aforementioned Souza which speaks volumes about his grappling ability that he was able to go a full 5 rounds against Souza and not get submitted. He’s not just a submission specialist and has fairly good stand up skills with 5 of his 13 career wins coming via TKO/KO. So he won’t be completely out of his element standing with Lawler but he certainly will be looking to turn this fight into a grappling contest as quickly as he can.

Pick – Kennedy via 3rd round submission. Lawler will most likely have his moments in this fight but ultimately have to work very hard fighting off takedown attempts or trying to get back to his fight while defending submissions and that will take its toll as the fight wears on.

Handicapping Play – None. Kennedy is currently at -280 and Lawler is too dangerous a fighter for that high of a line.

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• Marloes “Rumina” Coenen vs. Meisha “Takedown” Tate – A fight in the realm of women’s MMA, which may or may not have a viable future with the purchase of Strikeforce by Zuffa, LLC, pits Marloes Coenen, the Strikeforce welterweight champion against the top contender Meisha Tate. Coenen’s true prowess is as a grappling and submission fighter with 14 of her 19 career wins coming via submission. This will be her 2nd title defense after having submitted Liz Carmouche with a triangle choke in the 4th round back in March in a fight that she was losing at the time. She dug down and found the heart to win that fight but it did expose some weaknesses in her game, particularly dealing with a strong fighter gaining top position on her, which could be a major obstacle in this fight. Coenen isn’t going to consistently threaten any fighter with her striking and working off her back against a strong wrestler like Tate is a risky proposition.

Meisha Tate who comes into this title fight riding a 5 fight win streak and was the victor in the welterweight tournament last August which earned her this title shot. With the nickname of “Takedown” it is no great surprise that wrestling is the strongest part of her game. She is a tough; grind it out type fighter that seems to matchup extremely well with the champion. Tate has only lost twice in her career and has only been stopped once which was by knockout 4 years ago in just her 2nd professional career fight. Strong takedowns and a dominant top control game has been the base for her successful career up to this point. The fact that she has never been submitted bodes well for her in this fight as well. If she can impose her will on Coenen and execute her takedown attempts successfully while maintaining her solid submission defense then she has an exceedingly good chance to walk out with the title.

Pick – Tate via unanimous decision. This fight probably goes the distance as it will be difficult for either fighter to stop the other. I think Tate’s wrestling and submission defense will allow her to control position on the ground and grind out a decision.

Handicapping Play – None. This fight is virtually a toss-up on the boards right now with the champ at -125. Fight is too close to call so my suggestion is to stay away.

• Fedor “The Last Emperor” Emelianenko vs. Dan “Hendo” Henderson – Whether it is age, deterioration of skills, or any other reason, the aura surrounding the once seemingly invincible Fedor has been shattered. The first loss of his career to Fabricio Werdum in June 2010 could easily be explained by an overaggressive Fedor making a sloppy mistake by jumping into the guard of a BJJ world champion and getting caught in a deep triangle choke from which there was no escape. There was no way to sugarcoat his 2nd consecutive loss to Antonio “Giant” Silva in the opening round of the Strikeforce heavyweight tournament back in February. Silva beat and battered Fedor to a bloody pulp from a dominant top position forcing a doctor stoppage after the end of the 2nd round. Fedor looked helpless in dealing with the much bigger Silva, which was unusual because he had dealt with bigger fighters in the past, but now at age 34 perhaps Fedor just can’t overcome such stark differences in size and strength as he could in his prime. Fedor is still the best mixed martial artist in the history of the sport who possesses outstanding submission skills, highly effective striking, and an excellent mind for in ring strategy and tactics. The matchup with Henderson is a very favorable one for Fedor. He will not have to deal with a bigger fighter and his superior boxing skills and submission game should serve him well as long as he can be smart and avoid Henderson’s patented “H-bomb” of a right hand.

The reigning Strikeforce light heavyweight champion, Dan Henderson, is moving up to fight at heavyweight for this matchup to take on the legendary Emelianenko. Henderson, who will turn 41 in August, won the light heavyweight title in his last fight over Rafael Cavalcante back in March by landing one of those devastating “H-bomb” sledgehammer right hands. Despite his age, Hendo just keeps competing at a high level in the sport and proves too much for most fighters to handle. His game is based on an excellent Greco-Roman wrestling background, dirty boxing, an iron jaw, and the aforementioned thunderous right hand. Upper echelon fighters however have had success in exploiting Henderson’s slow, plodding style in his standup game and have circled away from that “H-bomb” right hand thus nullifying his striking. If a fighter does that then Hendo doesn’t have much else to rely on in the striking department. His kicks are virtually nonexistent and his jab is only average at best. Fedor will be smart enough to exploit those gaps in Henderson’s striking and be comfortable enough defending any takedown attempts and/or grappling with Hendo if the fight does hit the mat.

Pick – Fedor via unanimous decision. Fedor will be smart enough to avoid those “H-bombs” and use his speed and boxing skill to win rounds and earn the decision

Handicapping Play – Fedor -250. Good matchup for Fedor to get back in the win column and the price is right.

My three picks on the main card again are: Smith +190, Woodley -285, and Fedor -250. I don’t have any plays on the preliminary card but there are some really interesting match ups including Tyson Griffin against Manny Gamburyan which should be very entertaining fight. Enjoy the fights and I’ll be back with more picks for UFC 132 next weekend.

By Jim McClelland
ProFighting-fans.com Staff Writer
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