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Strikeforce Diaz vs Daley Predictions: Strikeforce Diaz vs Daley Preview & Predictions - April 9

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Pro Fighting Fans is the home of Strikeforce MMA fans across the globe and we now bring you the best place to find the latest Strikeforce news as well as the latest preview & predictions. Strikeforce is set for another great event on April 09, 2011 featuring a stacked card with many of Strikforce's top MMA fighters. Our Strikeforce Diaz vs Daley predictions & fight previews are posted below for MMA fans across the globe to enjoy. Check out the historic Strikeforce results and buy Strikeforce tickets online here through Pro Fighting Fans!

The Strikeforce: Diaz vs. Daley event this coming Saturday, April 9 th from the Valley View Casino Center in San Diego, CA features 2 title fights, a rematch of a 2006 fight of the year nominee, and a fighter with the nickname “Fancy Pants” on the main card so it would be virtually impossible for it not to be entertaining. The main event of Nick Diaz defending his welterweight belt vs. Paul “Semtex” Daley is certainly the big draw to the card but all four fights on the main card hold at least one element of intrigue and should make for an exciting night of fights. Your resident handicapping guru is 21-10-1 (65.6%) for the year up to this point so to say the least it has been a good start to the year. I like plays on 3 of the 4 main card fights so without further ado let’s break down the fights:

Shinya Aoki vs. Lyle “Fancy Pants” Beerbohm – The 1st fight on the main card features the aforementioned Lyle “Fancy Pants” Beerbohm, definitely a guy that is secure in his sexuality to tote around a nickname like that. The fact is that “Fancy Pants” has a sterling 15-1 record with a fairly well rounded skill set that has seen him notch 6 wins via TKO/KO and 7 wins by submission. His last fight was the only loss he has suffered. It was a unanimous decision loss to the rather mediocre Pat Healy at Strikeforce Challengers 14 back in February. We’ll see how he bounces back from the first loss of his career as he takes on the toughest opponent of his career in Shinya Aoki.

Aoki, the current DREAM lightweight champion and Shooto middleweight champion, is returning to Strikeforce after losing his first fight in the organization against the current lightweight champion Gilbert Melendez in April of last year. He is without question one of the best submission artists in MMA today with 16 of his 26 career victories coming by submission. However, it was blatantly apparent in his fight against Melendez that his lack of any significant development in his striking skills can put him at a serious disadvantage when he fights the upper echelon lightweight fighters. Is Beerbohm in that upper echelon? I don’t think so. He is a solid fighter with good grappling skills but I just don’t see him being able to keep the fight standing long enough to exploit Aoki’s weak striking and once the fight does go to the mat Aoki is the superior grappler.

Pick – Aoki via unanimous decision. I see “Fancy Pants” having enough chops on the ground to not get submitted but Aoki will most likely have the more dominant positions and grind out the decision

Handicapping Play – Aoki -210

Gegard “The Dream Catcher” Mousasi vs. Keith “The Dean of Mean” Jardine– Mousasi, one of the fastest rising stars in the light heavyweight division back in 2009, is making his return to Strikeforce after being upset by Muhammed “King Mo” Lawal and losing the Strikeforce light heavyweight championship last April. That fight was an eye opener for a lot of fans, including myself, and exposed an obvious flaw in Mousasi’s game when fighting strong wrestlers. His inability to defend Lawal’s takedowns and be able to get back to his feet led to Lawal grinding out a unanimous decision against him. Since that loss, Mousasi has two submission wins in the DREAM organization and looks to get back to fulfilling those high expectations. The guy is an outstanding finisher with 28 of his 30 wins having come via TKO/KO or submission and has shown an electrifying skill set inside the cage. His kickboxing is crisp and technical and when you mix that with a silky smooth submission game it is easy to see why he was such a fast rising star before the stumble against Lawal. If he can improve that takedown defense and scrambling ability against fighters with strong wrestling backgrounds he will be a complete fighter able to compete against any light heavyweight in the sport.

Keith Jardine, the former UFC staple who was released from that organization after 3 consecutive losses in 2009-10, is making his Strikeforce debut and its one tough draw taking on the former light heavyweight champion in his first fight. Jardine is the proverbial grinder who isn’t particularly strong in any one area of MMA but he is also not really weak in any area either and his herky jerky fighting style can give opponents problems. If he can use his use effective leg kicks to slow Mousasi down and get inside and turn the fight into more of a dirty boxing brawl he may have a chance but that will be easier said then done. If the fight stays at distance then Mousasi’s speed, athleticism, and technical kickboxing will be too much for Jardine to handle.

Pick – Mousasi via 1st round TKO

Handicapping Play – None. Mousasi is too big a favorite and on most books the fight isn’t even on the board because of the odds.

Gilbert “El Nino” Melendez vs. Tatsuya “Crusher” Kawajiri – Melendez, the Strikeforce lightweight champion, rides a 4 fight winning streak into his title defense against Kawajiri which is a rematch of their exhilarating 2006 fight in Pride which Melendez won by unanimous decision. “El Nino” definitely has an unorthodox striking style but there is no denying his effectiveness and power as he has 10 of his 18 career wins by TKO/KO. He also has never been stopped in a fight yet either having dropped both of his career losses by decision so he can hang in the pocket and trade with just about anyone. If there is a weakness you can pick at in the champ’s game it might be his grappling game; however he has been very adept at staying out of bad positions on the ground and keeping the fight where he wants it against the competition he has faced thus far.

Kawajiri is coming off a big win against Josh Thompson, one of the two men to have notched a win against Melendez, on New Year’s Eve in K-1 and gets his first fight in Strikeforce to be a title shot. A well rounded fighter that has shown he can win any number of ways but has seemed the most comfortable with his striking, although he does have 6 of his 27 career wins via submission. The first fight with Melendez was a back and forth slugfest that went the distance and was nominated as the 2006 fight of the year. Standing in the pocket and trading with Melendez is going to be a hard way to win the rematch because it seems he has a small but discernible edge in that area over Kawajiri.

Pick – Melendez via unanimous decision. Hopefully the fight lives up to the first one but ultimately I see Kawajiri hanging tough for the duration but just not having enough to earn the victory.

Handicapping Play – Melendez -225. This price is about the edge of what I would pay. If it climbs north of -250 I would be a little more cautious.

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Nick Diaz vs. Paul “Semtex” Daley – Nick Diaz comes into this title defense of his Strikeforce welterweight championship riding a 9 fight win streak with his last loss coming back in 2007. The most polarizing figure in the sport takes on the probably the most dangerous striker of his career (along with Robbie Lawler) in this fight. Diaz’s submission skills have always been outstanding and it’s what has formed the base of his MMA skill set; however his dedication to consistently improving his boxing skills is what has led to him growing into an excellent fighter. He now possesses quick, accurate punches that he tends to land in multiple combinations and although he doesn’t have great one punch knockout power his pressure and combinations tend to wear down and eventually overwhelm his opponents. I look for Diaz to use his reach advantage (roughly a 4 inch height advantage) to keep Daley on the outside with his jab and frustrate him as he tries to get inside. Once Daley starts taking some chances to nullify that reach advantage I’d look for Diaz to try to secure a takedown and get Daley to the canvas where he can use his superior grappling ability to control the fight.

Paul “Semtex” Daley is probably most well known to the casual fans as the guy that sucker punched Josh Koscheck after the bell sounded in their fight at UFC 113 in May of last year. It certainly appeared the punch was thrown out of frustration but that is still no excuse and it promptly got him cut from the UFC roster along with a pledge from Dana White that he would never fight in the UFC again. Now leaving all that aside, Daley the fighter is a lethal striker with knockout power in both hands but it is his anvil of a left hook that is most feared. He has some excellent wins on his resume, including one over Martin Kampmann, and comes into this fight having won his last 4 fights since the loss to Koscheck. While I do give Daley the edge in striking in this fight it is his weakness in grappling that will ultimately be his downfall. He has suffered 5 of his 9 career losses via submission and he is stepping in the cage with an excellent submission artist in this fight. If Daley can keep this fight standing and force Diaz to stand in the pocket and trade with him then his chances of capturing the title are quite good, but Diaz is too smart to let that happen and will eventually turn this into a grappling contest which spells trouble for Daley.

Pick – Diaz via 2nd round submission.

Handicapping play – Diaz -210. This is a really good price because it’s such a difficult match up for Daley

My 3 picks for the card are Aoki -210, Melendez -225, and Diaz -210. I know I’m going with all chalk on this card and I do try to always have a good underdog play but I just don’t really see one on this card and the lines for the favorites aren’t all that inflated. There should be a ton of fireworks on this card and the other subplot to this card now is how the results will affect potential runs in the UFC for some of these fighters.

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ByJim McClelland
ProFighting-fans.com MMA Staff Writer

Strikeforce Diaz vs Daley Predictions: Strikeforce Diaz vs Daley Preview & Predictions - April 9

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