Strikeforce St. Louis: Previews and Predictions

Strikeforce doesn't name its cards, possibly because the UFC has trademarked all the adjectives for "explosive" and "awesome" in its 125-odd main events. However, there has never been a UFC: "Old School" – and Old School has never applied more than it does in this Strikeforce card. Unfortunately, the somewhat lame moniker of Strikeforce: St Louis, followed by Strikeforce: Henderson vs. Babalu II has been applied to the upcoming Missouri melee. Scott Coker, Strikeforce CEO may not have the imagination for cool event names, but he does have a handle on good matchups. Despite withdrawals and substitutions, the main event and two very interesting matchups remain to be contested. The "II" part of Henderson vs. Babalu II does not refer to Babalu's blue blood – rather, it refers to the fact that these guys fought ages ago, before either one had appeared in PRIDE FC or the UFC: Henderson beat Babalu by split decision to win the RINGS King of Kings Tournament in 1999. Babalu clearly has a long memory, as he requested the matchup to avenge the fight instead of a crack at the belt. The winner gets a shot at the light heavyweight title.

Henderson is coming off of a loss to Jake Shields, albeit at middleweight, which is a weight he struggles to make as he is now definitively over the hill. Backing these two veterans up on the main card are what should be a slam-bang punch-up between young strikers Paul Daley and Scott Smith, as well as an odd but strangely appealing bout between two more MMA old-timers: Robbie Lawler and Matt Lindland. Rounding out the card, Mike Kyle steps up to fill the shoes of an injured Valentijn Overeem to face always dangerous Antonio Silva. And to further confuse Strikeforce fans, Benji Radach is moving up to light heavyweight to face Haitian-American Ovince St Preux, after Radach suffered a middleweight KO at the hands of Scott Smith, who is at welterweight on this card versus Paul Daley. Despite the obvious anemic state of the Strikeforce stables, they've assembled what should be a good, if not fantastic card.

The undercard is stocked with new faces. This is a tie-in to Strikeforce's affiliation with EA Sports MMA video game, in particular "career mode", which in real life is the "Fighter Exchange Program". Four of the undercard fighters live and train with established MMA fighters, springboarding them to the undercard of a top-tier, professional MMA event. Sound like The Ultimate Fighter? Sure does, except without a prime-time cable TV slot.

MAIN CARD

Dan Henderson versus Renato Sobral (light heavyweight)

Paul Daley versus Scott Smith (welterweight)

Robbie Lawler versus Matt Lindland (middleweight)

Mike Kyle versus Antonio Silva (heavyweight)

Benji Radach versus Ovince St. Preux (light heavyweight)

No Shows

Former NFL pro Herschel Walker had to take his leave from the event due to a cut sustained in training, leaving opponent Scott Carson in the lurch. Valentijn Overeem, older brother of Strikeforce heavyweight champ Alistair Overeem, also bowed out of his fight due to an elbow injury. He was replaced by Mike Kyle.

Here are the main card breakdowns:

Benji Radach versus Ovince St. Preux

Moving up in weight is not that common in MMA. Some fighters like Rich Franklin can do it and actually look the part, others like Anthony Johnson and Thiago Alves should do it. Radach is 30, no spring chicken but not out of his league, age-wise when it comes to the science of cutting weight. The bottom line is, if you can make the weight, make it. While Radach is definitely a game fighter, he should be using his size as an advantage – while he is still in the black win-wise (and no slouch at 24-5), he has a glaring weakness, and that is his chin. Granted, he is a veteran fighter with heavy hands. But one has to ask, who has he beaten? His most significant victory is probably over Gerald Harris in 2007, who was recently released from the UFC. As far as records are concerned, St. Preux looks worse on paper at 8-4, but he is on a five fight win streak and is huge: 6'3" to Radach's 5'10". St. Preux was a linebacker and wrestler to boot. Radach is 1-2 in three fights with two KO losses.

Prediction: St. Preux by KO.

Mike Kyle versus Antonio Silva (heavyweight)

Kyle, as said, stepped in for an injured Valentijn Overeem to face "Bigfoot". Hopefully it was for a big paycheque, as this fight does not suit his smaller frame and striking-specific acumen. Kyle went for a run in Strikeforce back in the day, going 1-2-1 in the promotion at light heavyweight, and is a former UFC heavyweight fighter. The highlights of his career were two back to back King of the Cage matches which garnered him the light heavyweight belt. Kyle then appeared in ShoMMA (Strikeforce's non-televised minor events), winning his match, then fought for the XMMA light heavyweight championship in Australia. Clearly the man has few if any contractual obligations. Antonio Silva has been a little more consistent, going 1-1 in Strikeforce but fighting consecutively in Elite XC (essentially Strikeforce's current stable with additions) and Sengoku. Silva has wins over Ricco Rodriguez and Andrei Arlovski. This fight is simple: Silva is huge and will probably weigh in at 265. Despite black belts in judo and jiu jitsu, Silva can hold his own on the feet, thanks to his reach and weight in the clinch. Bottom line is, if Silva could outpoint Arlovski who is way bigger and just as dangerous as Kyle, Kyle should be a cinch for the big Brazilian. That said, this fight might be the best time to make a beer run.

Prediction: Silva by unanimous decision.

Robbie Lawler versus Matt Lindland

This fight is so weirdly fun and awesome I can't wait to watch it. Both of these fighters are so old school it hurts. Lawler is 1-2 in his last three, all three in Strikeforce, but he lost to the best of the best: Sobral and Jake Shields, while defeating Melvin Manhoef by KO. Prior to that, he went 1-(1) with Scott Smith in Elite XC, defeating Smith after Smith couldn't continue in the first fight due to a thumb in the eye. Prior to that, he was on a four fight tear from PRIDE to Elite XC. Lawler has been pitted against top-notch competition for the last four years despite the fact that he fought outside the UFC. Lindland can say the same, even though he ran for office in 2008. Lawler has more losses, but who can say he hasn't faced elite competition: Vitor Belfort, Fedor Emelianenko, current Strikeforce middleweight champion Ronaldo Souza, and wins over past nemeses Carlos Newton and Jeremy Horn in the IFL.

This is a fascinating fight that is almost too tough to call, if it weren't for the age gap. Lawler is 28, Lindland is 40. Lindland has been campaigning and fighting , Lawler has been angling for a title shot. I give this one to Lawler by a hair.

Prediction: Lawler by split decision.

> Find historic Strikeforce results listed on Pro Fighting Fans, buy Strikeforce MMA tickets or check out the upcoming Strikeforce schedule of events!

Paul Daley versus Scott Smith

This fight is the one that has everyone salivating. Two fighters with hands heavier than gravity, chins made of titanium and a pair of immense hearts are set to do battle and it will be glorious. In fact, two hardier opponents could hardly be chosen. This will be the fight to watch December 4th. Both fighters come to strike, but with the skills to fire fists with precision and skill – these guys are not brawlers, they are pinpoint finishers. Sure, Daley has some decision losses, while Smith has some KO defeats on his record, but their win columns are stacked high with KOs, TKOs and even the odd submission – in other words, the fun stuff every MMA fan salivates for. Paul Daley is the more complete fighter, with more wins at the higher echelon, but never underestimate Smith's ability to come back and finish a fight he is losing in late rounds, which he has demonstrated on several occasions. Any way you cut it, do not miss this fight.

Prediction: Daley by TKO round three.

Dan Henderson versus Renato Sobral

Both men have vied for the UFC light heavyweight championship and lost: Henderson to Quinton "Rampage" Jackson and Sobral to Chuck Liddell. Both have losses to Strikeforce champions in recent fights: Henderson to Jake Shields at middleweight in his last fight when he challenged for the belt earlier this year, and "Babalu" lost his belt to Gegard Mousasi at light heavyweight in 2009. Not to mention their first match (see above), and all the fights they've accumulated in a what's what of MMA promotions in the meantime. This fight will clearly come down to who is still relevant and who wants it more. This fight, again, is for title contention at light heavyweight versus current light heavyweight champ Rafael Feijao. Brazilian fighters currently hold three of Strikeforce's seven available belts. Americans hold two. It's not just reputations on the line, it is valor and patriotism.

Henderson is a dangerous and savvy all-around fighter, with knockout power in his perenially-cocked right hand, while he is a mastermind in the clinch and wields soul-crushing top-control. Sobral is a submission specialist with good wrestling. In other words, a classic matchup.

This fight could be determined on the feet. Henderson's weakness is when he is on his back, while Sobral has a questionable chin. On paper Henderson is the better wrestler, but in MMA this does not always quantify. From any angle, this is a ridiculously close fight to guess. I give the nod to Sobral as he has more momentum and holds the size and age advantage. Henderson, it could be argued, is fighting for paycheques like his training compatriots Randy Couture and Matt Lindland. If he has the gumption to work hard for another belt, the fight is his, but I suspect Sobral wants it more.

Prediction: Sobral by submission.

UNDERCARD

Lee Brousseau versus Mike Glenn (light heavyweight)

Ben Brown versus J.W. Wright (catchweight: 130 lbs)

Fernando Bettega versus Wayne Phillips (welterweight)

Justin Lawrence versus Max Martytniouk (lightweight)

Terrell Brown versus Patrick Cummins (light heavyweight)

By Roy Kok
ProFighting-fans.com MMA Staff Writer