TUF 8 Preview: UFC Ultimate Fighter 8 Finale Preview

While I find it difficult to contain a fair amount of criticism regarding the most recent season of Spike TVs The Ultimate Fighter, Saturday’s card should offer a fair amount of exciting and intriguing match ups for a couple of welterweight up and comers, a pair of middleweight veterans, and, of course, the four hopeful finalists of the show.

There were so many problems with The Ultimate Fighter: Team Nogueira vs Team Mir that I honestly don’t know where to begin, so I’ll keep it short and sweet. Junie Browning got way too much screen time while the four finalists—perfectly capable fighters and athletes—got barely half of that collectively, Nogueira and Mir came off as boring coaching choices without a hint of a rivalry brewing between them to keep viewers interested, and Spike and the UFC demonstrated a complete lack of respect for their fans, electing to show repetitive shots of members pulling pranks, goofing off, and throwing drunken nutties rather than training and quality Mixed Martial Arts.

This is supposed to be a show about Mixed Martial Arts, right?

Now that that’s out of the way, on to the fights.

Phillipe Nover vs Efrain Escudero (LW Final)

While hardly anyone was shocked by the appearance of Escudero (11-0 MMA) in the TUF lightweight finals—he boasted confidence, physicality, stamina, and superior ground skills—the dominating run his opponent, Phillipe Nover, made on the show raised quite a few eyebrows. This is the same guy who fainted during the first episode because of heat exhaustion, correct? The male nurse?

Well, this male nurse, having overcome his temperature-related difficulties, displayed razor sharp striking, a competent ground game, and a tenacity that nobody saw coming in his three wins in the house.

Escudero may be undefeated, young, and somewhat cocky, but he may have found the one lightweight in the house who’s not going to back down from him. Escudero should not be able to physically dominate Nover as he did Browning and the others, and Nover will not be able to overwhelm Escudero with his striking. Though there is a slight possibility of both scenarios happening, they are not likely.

Expect this one to be a surprisingly even, scrappy affair with Nover having some moments on the feet before being controlled in the latter rounds on the ground by Escudero. I fully expect this fight to go the distance, as both fighters have shown an unwillingness to quit in what little we have seen of them.

Official Prediction: Efrain Escudero by Unanimous Decision

Ryan Bader vs Vinicius Magalhaes (LHW Final)

Unlike the lightweight finals, the final bracket in the light heavyweight tournament hardly comes as a surprise. Ryan Bader (8-0 MMA), an accomplished collegiate wrestler with an undefeated record, earned praise early and often from nurturing coach Antonio Nogueira. Bader has demonstrated a rough and clean takedown game and he possesses both the height and speed to impose his will on quite a few future prospects.

While Magalhaes’s (3-2-1 MMA) record might seem laughable when compared with the undefeated Bader, it would be wise to keep in mind his world class ground game and the fact that said ground game was basically all he brought into the cage with him in his first few professional bouts.

His coach, Frank Mir, praised the Brazilian's ground game as being superior even to his own impressive skill set, and he proved it in his quick submissions in the house.

This fight might be a bit slower than the lightweight finals, but it will not be as close. Look for Bader to use his impressive physique to overwhelm Magalhaes after a feeling out process, where he will take the Brazilian down and impose his will for a majority of the fight, fending off legitimate submission attempts before pounding out a decisive TKO.

Official Prediction: Ryan Bader by TKO (Rounds 1-2)

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Kevin Burns vs Anthony “Rumble” Johnson 2

In what was perhaps one of the most bizarre and frustrating fights to watch in UFC history, Kevin Burns (8-1 MMA) and Anthony Johnson (5-2 MMA) have tangled once before on a July UFC Fight Night card earlier this year. While Burns would earn the supposed TKO victory, both Johnson and a majority of fans and pundits have refused to accept the verdict, as a ridiculous number of eye gouges on the part of Burns essentially took Johnson out of the fight. In fact, it was one such eye gouge that caused the athletic powerhouse Johnson to scream in pain and flop to his belly before being stopped and rewarded with a TKO loss in a fight that should have been a No Contest at worst, and a DQ win at best.

Regardless of how their first fight played out, the rematch, set for Saturday night at the TUF 8 finale, should prove to be an explosive affair with plenty of bad intentions, as both Johnson and Burns look to erase any doubts with a decisive and punishing victory.

Look for Burns to stay effective and competitive defensively in this rematch, but to eventually get taken down, pummeled, and stopped by a physically superior, poised “Rumble” Johnson, who still has all the potential in the world to be a top contender in the stacked division.

Official Prediction: Anthony Johnson by TKO (Round 2)

Jason “The Athlete” MacDonald vs Wilson Gouveia

In what should prove to be a very physical and competitive affair, two of the UFC’s upper echelon of middleweight veterans will battle it out as Jason MacDonald (21-10 MMA) will look to build on an impressive stoppage of Jason Lambert with a similar performance against the Brazilian standout Wilson Gouveia (11-5 MMA) who made an impressive middleweight debut in September, submitting Ryan Jensen in the second round.

Both of these fighters possess extraordinary submission games, so look for the fight to take place predominantly on the ground. While “The Athlete” struggled against submission ace Demian Maia at UFC 87 back in August, he still managed to make it to the third round against one of the most talented submission artists in the world while playing to his opponent’s strengths. On paper, Gouveia has the better Jiu-Jitsu, but look for this one to be close and competitive, with MacDonald’s superhuman strength and conditioning keeping the fight even against Gouveia’s superior skill set.

The difference in the match up could very well come in the stand up department, where both fighters have made significant improvements, ironically both holding (T)KOs over Lambert within the last year. While Gouveia probably has a significant edge in terms of knockout power, MacDonald’s striking has shown promise in wearing down his opponents.

Look for this one to be an extremely close call and a rough and bloody affair, but ultimately, I expect Gouveia to get the job done with a well-timed submission after taking significant damage from MacDonald.

Official Prediction: Wilson Gouveia by Submission (Arm Bar) (Rounds 2-3)

Quick Shots:

• Junie Browning over Dave Kaplan by (T)KO
• Krzysztof Soszynski over Shane Primm by (T)KO
• Eliot Marshall over Jules Bruchez by Submission
• Tom Lawlor over Kyle Kingsbury by (T)KO
• George Roop over Shane Nelson by Submission
• Rolando Delgado over John Polakowski by Decision

By Steven T. Kelliher
ProFighting-fans.com Staff Writer