UFC 129 – Preview and Picks

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UFC 129 on Saturday April 30, 2011 from the Rogers Centre in Toronto, Ontario features not just one but two title fights on the main card as well as another very interesting match up between Lyoto Machida and Randy Couture. The main event of the evening is unquestionably the UFC welterweight title fight between Jake Shields and the reigning champion and Toronto native Georges St. Pierre (GSP). The UFC has spent a great deal of time and money hyping this fight which is probably a result of most casual fans not really knowing a great deal about Jake Shields since he has fought virtually his entire career outside of the UFC except for his last fight against Martin Kampmann. While the thrust of the promotion has surrounded the GSP/Shields fight, I believe the other title fight between Mark Hominick and the featherweight champion Jose Aldo has the potential to be a more entertaining fight and possibly fight of the night. It’s the first ever title fight in the featherweight division of the UFC and pits two explosive strikers against one another that should produce plenty of fireworks. There really aren’t many attractive handicapping plays on this card, particularly since the two title fights both have the champions as heavy favorites, but I have managed to pick out a play or two for you. Heading into this weekend your resident guru’s handicapping record for the year stands at 24-10-1 (69%) including a perfect 3-0 at the last Strikeforce event back on April 9 th, so without further ado let’s break down the main card and pick out a few winners:

• Vladimir “The Janitor” Matyushenko vs. Jason “The Hitman” Brilz – This fight shapes up to be a bring your lunch pale to work, hard nosed battle. Both fighters are nearly impossible to put away in a fight having only been stopped a total of 4 times in a combined 52 professional fights. In the last six years Matyushenko is 12-2 with his two losses coming against Antonio “Lil Nog” Nogueira and Jon “Bones” Jones which are nothing to hang your head about. A solid all around game makes Matyushenko the kind of grizzled veteran that poses a great deal of problems for every fighter not in the upper echelon of the light heavyweight division. He may be 40 years old and not quite as quick as he used to be but he still possess solid knockout power and grappling skills that command respect. Another intangible about his game is that he knows how to win close fights. His 25 professional wins have seen 10 come via decision which shows that he knows how to stay active, keep advantageous positions, and do the little things that win rounds.

Jason Brilz is much like a slightly younger version of Matyushenko. The 35yr old has won 18 of his 22 professional fights with half of those wins coming via submission. He certainly gave the aforementioned Antonio “Lil Nog” Nogueira all he could handle in his last fight at UFC 114, barely losing a razor thin split decision which more then a few fans and experts think he won. His wrestling skills were on full display in that fight as he controlled Nogueira from top position for a large portion of the fight but just couldn’t quite close the deal. A tenacious fighter that has only been stopped once in his career and that was via submission nearly 10 years ago. His striking is only average at best and that is where he is at the greatest disadvantage in this fight. He needs to close the distance on Matyushenko and look to use his wrestling to gain and maintain top position and wear down his older opponent. Matyushenko has never been submitted in his 30 fights and couple that with Brilz’s mediocre striking it is unlikely he will earn a victory any way other then grinding out a decision.

Pick – Matyushenko via split decision. I do think Brilz wrestling will give Matyushenko some problems at times in this fight but Matyushenko has the better stand up and more all around tools to earn a hard fought decision in what should be a relatively even fight.

Handicapping Play – None. Matyushenko is a slight favorite on the boards now but this fight is too close to really have confidence on any one side.

• Mark Bocek vs. Ben “Smooth’ Henderson – This fight features a battle of a pair of submission aces with UFC veteran Mark Bocek taking on the former WEC lightweight champion Ben Henderson who is making his UFC debut. Bocek is coming off an impressive submission victory of Dustin Hazelett, an outstanding submission artist in his own right, at UFC 124 and could really keep that momentum building with a win over Henderson. Even Bocek’s fight before his win against Hazelett, he took Jim Miller the distance in losing a unanimous decision. Miller is one of the best lightweights in the world proving that Bocek is a dangerous opponent for anyone. He brings excellent submission skills to the table with 7 of his 9 wins coming via that route and he will be fighting in front of his home crowd in Toronto. While his striking skills are improving they are still the weakest part of his game but that shouldn’t be a hindrance in this fight because that is also the weakest aspect of Henderson’s game as well.

Henderson is making his UFC debut looking to bounce back after losing his WEC lightweight title to Anthony Pettis at WEC 53 in December in a tough unanimous decision loss. His two battles with Donald “The Cowboy” Cerrone in the WEC are legendary and he was riding a 10 fight win streak before his loss to Pettis so there is no doubt he possesses a ton of talent. He has made his mark so far on the sport with his submission game, notching 8 of his 12 professional wins via submission, while only being stopped once in his career back in 2007 in only his 3 rd professional fight. Like Bocek, it is his striking that is the weakest part of his game and needs the most improvement and that was exposed in his fight against Pettis. However, Bocek isn’t the kind of opponent that can expose those flaws. Very often in a fight between two excellent submission artists their ground games cancel each other out and it winds up being the fighter that can effectively land their strikes that earns the victory.

Pick – Henderson via unanimous decision. I don’t think either fighter will submit the other and I’d give Henderson a slight edge in striking so that is my pick.

Handicapping Play – None. Most sites have Henderson as a slight favorite but like the previous fight this one is just too close to call between guys with such similar styles that it makes it almost impossible to like one particular side.

• Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida vs. Randy “The Natural” Couture – The walking legend Couture takes on the former seemingly unbeatable Lyoto Machida who is coming off back to back losses, the only two of his career. This is smart match making by the UFC. Couture is still one of the most popular and recognizable figures in the sport but at his advanced age of 47 (will be 48 in June) he poses very little threat to Machida. Machida needs a win to get back on track to work back towards the title and this is a way for him to get a big name win on his resume.

Machida is the younger, quicker, more skilled fighter. Couture’s game plan is well known at this point in his career. He wants to force the fight up against the cage where he can dirty box and work for takedowns to use his excellent wrestling to ground and pound his opponent. The problem with that style in this fight is that he is fighting the most elusive fighter in the sport. Machida uses distance and angle to control his opponents better then any fighter in the game today. He has also shown to have outstanding takedown defense when his opponents have managed to get a hold of him. It has been powerful strikers in the forms of Mauricio Rua and Quinton Jackson that have handed him losses in his last two fights. Couture doesn’t possess that level of striking or explosiveness, especially at this point in his career. Couture has all the heart in the world and he will keep coming forward and make Machida earn the victory but it would be a monumental upset if he were to pull this one out.

Pick – Machida via 3rd TKO. The accumulation of strikes from Machida I think will eventually force a referee stoppage in the 3 rd round if not sooner.

Handicapping Play – Machida -310. This is at the upper level of the odds I recommend fights at but if you can get Machida for a price under -330 I would take it.

• Jose “Scarface” Aldo vs. Mark “The Machine” Hominick – The first of the two title fights on the card has fight of the night candidate written all over it and potential for maybe an early entrant for fight of the year. The Canadian native Hominick has been on a roll winning his last 5 fights including his last one in the UFC in January knocking out George Roop. Hominick is a well rounded fighter possessing very good kickboxing coupled with solid submission skills. He has finished his opponent in 16 of his 20 professional wins and gets to compete for the title in the biggest fight of his career in front of a partisan home crowd in Toronto. The bad news for Hominick is that he is fighting one of the best pound for pound fighters in the world in Jose Aldo. If Hominick has had a weakness in his career it is that despite his 7 submission wins he has also suffered 5 of his 8 career losses via submission. That could be a problem in this fight because despite the fact that Aldo hasn’t flashed much of his submission game in his fights he does possess high level Brazilian Jiu Jitsu.

Aldo is the first ever crowned UFC featherweight champion and this will be his first title defense. As I stated earlier, Aldo is one of the best pound for pound fighters in the world. He owns the most devastating combination of power and speed in his striking that I have ever seen. It’s really not something you can properly train for and has overwhelmed every one of his last 6 opponents including a clinical dissection of Urijah Faber, one of the fastest and most athletic fighters in that weight class. There isn’t any aspect in striking that he doesn’t excel at and opponents haven’t had any recent success in putting him on his back despite fighting excellent wrestlers such as Faber and Mike Brown. At 24 years old he should only get better as the years progress and that is a terrifying thought for anyone fighting at featherweight. Hominick is the best technical striker he has fought and could give Aldo some early problems if he is crisp and accurate with his combinations. However, I fully expect that Aldo’s speed, athleticism, and ultimately higher skill level will prevail

Pick – Aldo via 3rd round TKO. Hominick will come out fired up in front of the home crowd and give Aldo a run in the early going but in the end Aldo will be too much for him to handle.

Handicapping play – None. The price is too high in this fight. Aldo is -425 or higher on most books and that is just too high a price.

• Georges “Rush” St. Pierre vs. Jake Shields – The best pound for pound fighter in the world in Georges St. Pierre (GSP) once again defends his UFC welterweight title this time against the impressive Jake Shields. Shields has won 15 consecutive fights dating all the way back to 2004. He has held titles in multiple organizations during that time and has put some very good wins on his resume during that time frame including Dan Henderson, Robbie Lawler, and Carlos Condit. The one aspect of the game that Shields excels at is grappling. His control of his opponents on the ground is tremendous and that goes hand in hand with his superb submission skills. During his 15 fight win streak he has won 6 of them via submission and his ground control has led to multiple decision wins during the win streak as well. The one area that he has been working to improve is his striking but if his last fight against the ultra talented Martin Kampmann is any indication he has a long way to go. Kampmann worked Shields over while the fight was standing and if it were not for repeated stubborn attempts by Kampmann to submit Shields it could very likely be Kampmann taking on GSP instead of Shields. The biggest obstacle that Shields will have to overcome in this fight is that GSP is the best pound for pound wrestler in MMA today and is nearly impossible to take down much less control on the ground. If the fight turns into a striking contest then Shields is in for a long night.

GSP is simply the best all around pound for pound fighter in the world. As I stated earlier, he is the best pound for pound wrestler in the sport bar none. This allows him to dictate where his fights take place. His take downs and his take down defense are both off the charts and if he decides to put his opponent on their back there isn’t much they can do to prevent it. In addition to that outstanding grappling pedigree is an exceedingly efficient, technically sound striking game that is now also operating at a world class level. This was on full display in his last fight against Josh Koscheck when he pummeled Koscheck with a lightning quick and accurate jab that controlled the fight and ultimately broke Koscheck’s orbital bone. His dedication to improving in all phases of MMA coupled with his natural strength, speed, and uber athleticism make him the most complete fighter on the planet.

When I handicap fights I look for ways that fighters can win the fight. In examining this fight I just don’t see how Jake Shields is going to win this fight, other then connecting with a big fight changing strike which is always a possibility in MMA. I don’t see Shields taking GSP down or gaining top position given that other great wrestlers such as Koscheck and Jon Fitch never came close to doing that in their fights against GSP. If Shields can’t take GSP down and is forced to stand and engage essentially in a kickboxing bout he is at a significant disadvantage. This really is a terrible match up for Shields, not that GSP isn’t a tough match up for anyone, but the one aspect of Shield’s game that he excels in, his grappling, is the one area that GSP is every bit his equal and even better in some ways.

Pick – GSP via unanimous decision. I think Shields will fight his heart out and have enough game to be able to go the distance but see him losing a fairly lopsided decision.

Handicapping Play – None. The line is too high. Most books have GSP between -400 and -500 which is just too high a price.

There is one fight I like on the preliminary card as well. Jake Ellenberger -180 over Sean Pierson. Ellenberger is a solid up and coming fighter and I like the price for him in this spot. That makes 2 plays for the card, Ellenberger -180 and Machida -310, but remember not to pay too high a price for the Machida fight. I wish there were more plays to give you on the card but you have to play the hand your dealt so make sure to sit back and enjoy what should be a great night of fights.

By: Jim McClelland
Thank you for reading and you can reach me at jimmymac895@live.com and as a reminder you can follow me on twitter @therealMMAguru.