A View From Vancouver- UFC 131

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I’m fortunate enough to be going to UFC 131 in Vancouver Saturday night and, honestly, I’m glad it’s Carwin rather than Lesnar fighting dos Santos, because Carwin’s stand-up poses more than a few threats, whereas Lesnar’s… not so much.

It’s obvious to any sports fan that the focus here in Vancouver is the Canucks as they battle the Bruins. This is hockey country, and in 40 years of existence the Canucks have not won The Stanley Cup---the Vancouver Millionaires have, but that was 1915, the year I feel like I was born.  But the drought could end, and fans know it may be a loooong while before they see their team in the final, so everyone is taking it very seriously. The streets are a sea of blue and green jerseys.

Similarly, the press is all Canucks. I think I saw 24 pages of nothing but Canucks in The Province. That’s over-the-top, even for a hockey town. But how would a UFC fare against an NFL playoff game in the same city? 

“I’m gonna watch the fights,” said Marla, a woman wearing an Affliction top while at the grocery store checkout. “Luckily, it’s not on the same day. Otherwise…” 

Otherwise, the UFC would lose.  Fear not: the UFC will be jammed with excited fans like me.

Not so long ago I thought Brock Lesnar and Shane Carwin, with their massive muscles and relative agility, were the new faces of the heavyweight division, replacing the much more agile 240 pounders. Carwin’s physical shut-down versus Lesnar, and Cain’s destruction of Lesnar, shines new light on an ever-evolving topic.

After his annihilation at the hands of Lesnar, Mir tried bulking up, and found against Carwin that this strategy didn’t work for him, so he trimmed down. Now, Carwin has dropped 35 pounds to tip the Toledos at circa 240. It is becoming apparent that as the heavyweights pass the 265 pound mark and need to cut 20+ pounds to make 265, they lose an overall advantage in the grand scheme that is the UFC gauntlet---you have to be able to beat all contenders in the class, not some or most.  Not that Lesnar and Carwin aren’t hugely successful in their own right, but it’s became evident that the disadvantages of a huge physique can be exploited.

This is what makes Junior ‘Cigno’ dos Santos vs Shane ‘The Crusher ‘ (my nickname for him) Carwin so intriguing. Will dos Santos’s boxing skill, his ability to stay off the mat and mastery of distance tire out Carwin?  Will Carwin’s new diet and regimen add to his toolbox, or will he lose power?  Either way, fans aim to be impressed with the performance of whoever wins.

The key to Carwin’s victory will not rely on taking down the Brazilian, but in clinching and taking him to the fence, a la Carwin’s destruction of Mir. If Carwin can keep dos Santos against the fence for a significant amount of time, he could KO him there, or dos Santos’s shoulders may tire, as happened to Penn when GSP employed those tactics, thereby sapping Cigano of some of his boxing skill.

> Catch all of the official UFC 131 results online here at ProFighting-fans.com after the fights are complete!

Carwin has been out a while and may suffer from ring rust.  That may be his Achilles heel in this fight. We could also see an impressive boxing clinic from dos Santos. Having said all this, I have yet to speak with anyone who knows for sure what will happen in this clash Saturday night. We know this much: it won’t go past the second round.

Kenny Florian (15-5) debuts at 145 against Diego Nunes (16-1). Nunes, a WEC fighter whose first UFC match was an unconvincing split decision over Mike Brown, is a good test for Florian’s foray into featherweight.  Florian has stellar Muay Thai and BJJ skills, however, against certain 155 pounders, KenFllo lacked meat. This was not apparent in his Guida fight, which he won handily, but was a huge factor in his loss to Penn.  Look for Florian’s skills to mesh perfectly with his natural physique at this weight, and for him to be a serious threat to the belt.

Heavy-hitting wrestler Mark Munoz is a perfect match for BJJ wizard Damien Maia. While sporting different skill sets, this is a fitting match-up of two men on the cusp of better (or worse) things. This fight will keep the winner on an upward track, and send the loser to the drawing board. Munoz will want to strike rather than take Maia down. Maia, on the other hand, will want to get hold of Munoz and get it to the mat. Maia has had trouble taking certain fighters down (can you say Anderson Silva?), but getting the fight down should happen for Maia.

At lightweight, Sam Stout will be fighting Yves Edwards, a man with an impressive 57 fights notched. Sam Stout is one of those rare, highly-technical strikers who isn’t afraid of brawling and often does. I haven’t seen a Stout fight I haven’t loved, and his style often has me mesmerized as I watch him move and deliver combos.  A majority of Edwards’s wins have come by TKO or submission, and he’s now won two fights in the UFC.  If the headliner is prime for KO of the night, and if Munoz-Maia gets submission of the night, look for Stout-Edwards to get fight of the night.

Early next week you’ll see my impressions of being at the live event.  If the camera pans the stands, keep an eye out for me. Look for a broad-shouldered, tall, dark-haired man with impeccable tattoos and taste for bling---I’ll be sitting next to him.

By Renko Styranka
ProFighting-fans.com MMA Staff Writer