Second Time's a Charm... Maybe: Garcia vs. Phan 2

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It was announced early last week that Matt Grice was forced off of the UFC 136 card due to injury, leaving Nam Phan without an opponent. This unfortunate happening turned out to be a blessing in disguise for fans, as Grice will be replaced by the ever exciting Leonard Garcia, in a rematch of a very controversial fight that took place during the Ultimate Fighter season 12 finally. The first fight between the two is considered one of the biggest robberies ever in MMA. Garcia won on two of three judges scorecards, but most anyone who has seen that fight, including commentator Joe Rogan, agree that Phan was the real winner that night. Their rematch will be an exciting affair which, if my assessment is correct, will see Phan come out on top.

Why is there such controversy sourrounding the decision? Lets take a look at the fight round by round. It was clear from the very beginning that both fighters came to fight. Leonard attacked first, but Nam soon had Garcia backing up, landing combinations on him against the fence as Garcia swung wild haymakers. This early exchange set the pace for the rest of the round. For the next four and half minutes, both fighters stood in front of each other and traded blows. There was, however, a distinct difference in the way the strikes were delivered. Garcia, with his hands by his side and his chin in the air, would wade forward with wild looping punches, usually in the form of a one-two, then return his hands to his waist, leaving himself open for counter shots. Nam, on the other hand, kept his guard high and was able to block most of Garcia's shots and pick his time to attack with two, three, or four punch or punch/kick combinations, often ending with his trademark left hook to the liver.

Nam was fighting a smarter fight, watching for openings and picking the right time to attack, while Garcia was throwing more frequently with powershots, constantly looking for the homerun, but missing. In fact, according to fightmetric.com, Garcia threw 57 power shots to the head in round one, but landed only 7. It is conceivable that one might give the first round to Garcia. While the amount of shots landed were relatively equal, Garcia could have been viewed as the more aggressive fighter; and aggression, not accuracy, is one of the official scoring criteria. The second round of the fight, however, played out a little differently.

Between rounds one and two Garcia's coach Greg Jackson told him to be aggressive, to use his jab, and to circle any time he thinks about backing up. At the start of the round Garcia seemed to be taking that advice. He came out, threw a kick, fired several jabs, and circled, just as he had been told. After about 25 seconds, however, he went right back to looking for the homerun as Nam continued to block the shots and look for openings. Just before the two minute mark, Garcia shot for a takedown, as he will often do in effort to steal rounds. Nam was back to his feet quickly though, and proceeded to land on Garcia, eventually putting Leonard on his behind with a sidekick. Phan then followed Garcia to the mat, took his back, and for the last two minutes of the round patiently worked for a rear naked choke. While he was unable to submit Garcia, there is no doubt that Nam Phan won round two.

It was more of the same in the third round. Garcia came out swinging while Phan was more reserved, picking his shots. About one minute into the round Garcia shot and took Phan down, but again Nam was back to his feet quickly. Garcia, at this point, was visibly tired, but still throwing his looping shots, which mostly glanced off Phan's guard. Phan, on the other hand, continued to land nice combinations as Leonard kept throwing big punches until the final bell. Fightmetric.com had Nam Phan landing 38 strikes to Garcia's 21, a significant difference.

So how could this match have possibly gone the way of Garcia. For argument's sake, let us say that the first round went to Leonard. The second round, as stated above, goes to Phan, there is no arguing that. So that means that two of the three judges must have given the third round to Garcia. Could they have given enough weight Garcia's brief takedown to warrant awarding him the round? Only if the striking had been dead even, which it certainly was not. Garcia spent most of the round gasping for air and missing with wild shots, while Phan picked him off with well timed combinations. Yes, many of Garcia's punches landed on Phans arms as he blocked them, but those cannot count as a shots landed. It is true that judges are not blessed with compubox style statistics, such as those offered by fightmetric.com, but anyone watching that third round would not need fightmetric.com to tell that Leonard Garcia's punches were not finding their mark on Nam Phan's face.

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Those judging the rematch will be well aware of the outcry from fans and pundits over the decision. For this reason, if Garcia and Nam both come into their second fight with the same gameplans as they had in the first their first, the fight will not go the way Garcia, assuming one of Garcia's haymakers does not knock Nam out. The new judges will not want to be involved in another controversial decision, and will score the fight for Phan if it goes down the same way.

So what if Garcia decides to try and box Nam instead of brawling him? Garcia is capable of using a straight jab and proper footwork, he showed that at the beginning of the third round with Phan. He also showed more technical standup in his second fight with the Korean Zombie, Chan Sung Jung. Garcia had won a controversial decision against Jung, much the same way as he had against Nam Phan. During that fight, Garcia brawled Zombie, who has much the same style as Garcia, the same way he did Phan. In their second fight Garcia seemed to want to be the boxer and let Jung play the roll of the brawler. While Garcia did throw several looping punches in his second meeting with Jung, he was able to stay composed, used proper footwork, and keep his hands high, use a straight jab and some straight rights as well. The moment he began to brawl again he got in trouble, getting taken down by the Korean Zombie and coming close to being submitted with an armbar moments later.

In the second round of the Garcia vs. Zombie rematch, Garcia came out composed again and his corner immediately called for takedowns. They seemed to want Leonard to box Jung then take him down, end up on top, and steal rounds on point. Garica waited too long, however, and the fight only hit the ground when Leonard slipped from a high kick, allowing Jung to get top position. Garcia then gave his back and was eventually finished off by a twister, the first ever in the UFC.

If Garcia comes into the rematch with Phan with the same gameplan, he may be in some trouble. Boxing the Korean Zombie made sense, as he could employ a "box the brawler" strategy and time some takedowns to win on points. Phan, however, is not Chan Sung Jung. If Garcia tries to box Phan he will likely get picked apart, as Phan is the better technical striker. This leaves Garcia with two options. First, he could simply swing for the fences, as he did the first time around, and look to knock Phan out. However, as I mentioned above, this strategy would be a gamble, because if he does not get the knockout then the judges will likely score the fight in favor of Phan. His second option would be to turn the fight into an ugly affair by rushing forward, not allowing Phan to get into a rhythm, then clinch with Phan against the fence and work for takedowns to gain top position. The problem with this strategy is that Phan is a great ground fighter-a proud Brazilian jiu jitsu black belt. Indeed, Phan proved to be the better ground fighter in their first fight, nearly finishing Garcia with a rear naked. Garcia should, if he uses this strategy, let Phan back up any time he feels uncomfortable, then press Nam against the fence again and repeating the cycle.

All things considered, it looks like Phan will have the upper hand in this fight. If Garcia comes in with plans of brawling Phan, he will likely lose a decision. If he boxes Phan, it is even more likely that he will lose. Employing the clinch to takedown strategy would be his best option, but he then runs the risk of being submitted by the crafty BJJ black belt. While it is very possible that Garcia will find a way to win, this is, in my opinion, Nam Phan's fight to lose. Luckily for us, as fans of MMA, this fight should be another exciting one regardless of the outcome.

By Matt King
ProFighting-fans.com MMA Staff Writer