UFC 140: Jones vs Machida-Main Event Breakdown

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UFC 140 is upon us, and not a moment too soon. After all, it will be a whopping seven days since our last look inside the Octagon, and we need our fix! And what is the best compliment for any sporting event? Gambling of course, with honorable mentions going to beer and pizza. Luckily for fight fans, we can indulge in each simultaneously. Let’s breakdown the main event and see how many “units” we can accumulate.

Jon Jones (-500) vs Lyoto Machida (+375)

Assuming you have not been in a coma for the past 2-3 years, you have been fortunate enough to see the rise of two of the most compelling LHWs to ever compete in the UFC. It was just a couple of years ago that Machida was where Jones is now; a dominant enigma of a champion, who was strapped to a rocket headed for the stars. With Jones in the division’s driver’s seat, Machida will attempt to do what no one else has been able to do thus far: Beat the young, and still rapidly improving champion. To his credit, Machida does not seem to be taking this fight as the proverbial “just another fight.” He looks to be in the best physical condition of his career heading into this matchup, and he has diversified his training in an attempt to upset the champ. Will it be enough?

When attempting to breakdown any Jon Jones fight, you are legally obligated to first mention his length, and incredible 84.5 inch reach. You must then compare them to his challenger. In this case, Machida will stand 3 inches shorter, and face a 10.5 inch reach disadvantage. If you are new to this sport, or combat sports in general, that is A LOT! Actually, a lot is an understatement. A lot would be 5 or 6 inches. Ten and a half inches, especially combined with being 3 inches taller, is like having a superpower and your opponent being an anonymous henchman. Still having trouble? Picture a really big bully palming a smaller kid’s skull, and that feisty little guy is swinging and kicking at air, while the bully remains a comfortable distance away from any damage and you get the point. What has become even more frightening for Jones opponents is his relatively recent ability to harness this natural gift. After all, a reach advantage is useless if you do not use it properly. This is not a problem for Jones. Not only is not a problem, but it is something that he enhances by utilizing a unique kicking repertoire to create even more space. He uses this intended fresh air to attack from the outside and inflict damage from a very safe distance. Naturally, the first thing you want to do against a guy like that is find a way inside, and force him to fight inside a phone booth. Besides being easier said than done, this is the time I should mention that Jon Jones is a junior college national wrestling champion, and has displayed some of the best GrecoRoman wrestling the sport of MMA has ever seen.

Luckily for Machida, these fights happen inside of a cage, and not on a piece of a paper, or there might not be much of a reason to show up. What does Machida bring to the table? A wealth of experience, an unorthodox yet highly effective striking style, underrated wrestling, and an ability to cut angles that would leave even the very best geometry teachers in awe. He might just have the best footwork in the LHW division, and is able to literally leap into his strikes, and retreat in the time it takes your heart to beat. In addition, he transitions from defensive positions like backing up, to offensive strikes in a much faster and fluid manner than anyone else this side of Anderson Silva. Machida also keeps his head back as the farthest point of contact from his opponent, which can help negate reduce Jones’ reach super-advantage.

Every matchup has at least one X Factor, but that name is now taken by another show. So for our purposes, we’ll call it a Change Factor or C-Factor. The C-Factor in this fight is all about the clinch. Both men are dynamic strikers, and will probably find some success at various points in the fight from the outside. What will be interesting to see is who gets the advantage when the two tie up and begin the grappling aspect. Machida is known to practice his Sumo Wrestling, while Jones calls on Greco based style. Both men have had incredible success outwrestling their opponents, whether that means forcing it to the mat or keeping it standing. The man who is able to dictate where this fight takes place is going to win. Not exactly Earth shattering news, but the real question is who gets the advantage?

My guess is Jones has the advantage there. He just does not struggle against anyone in the clinch, and having the luxury of switching levels is the extra check in Jones’ pro column that pushes the fight in his favor. While being a 3.75-1 underdog is probably too much for Machida, it is not high enough for me to advocate a bet on him. From the, “it isn’t you, it’s me” department, I couldn’t allow anyone to bet against Jon Jones right now. This has little to do with Machida, and everything to do with Jones. He is already the best LHW in the world, and he is still getting better. Can you bet against a guy who keeps showing a better version every time he steps in the cage? I cannot, and I do not recommend you do either. My solution is to take Jon Jones inside the distance. The price is going to be significantly less than the -500 tag you get straight up, and the most likely scenario.

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By Brian Kaune
ProFighting-fans.com MMA Staff Writer