UFC Previews: UFC 94 Preview

Matt Arroyo vs. Dan Cramer (welterweight bout)

The first of five welterweight bouts for UFC 94 will match up two former competitors from “The Ultimate Fighter” house. Arroyo, a fighter from the sixth season of the show will try and welcome Cramer, who is from the seventh season to the UFC. Cramer will make his first official UFC fight while Arroyo makes his third.

Arroyo, a Gracie Jiu Jitsu fighter out of Tampa, Florida is known as a one dimensional fighter. His ground skills are above average while his stand up needs much improvement to become relevant in the UFC. His 3-2 overall record and 1-1 UFC record are evident of his ground skills. All of his wins have come by way of submission while all of his losses have come by way of TKO. He is trying to get back in the winning column after a loss to the always tough Matt Brown at The Ultimate Fighter 7 Finale in June of last year. In that fight he showed that he has to improve his stand up, when he was overwhelmed by Brown, until the fight was finally stopped in the second round via punches.

Cramer makes his first official UFC bout after only three amateur fights in his career. He fought for Team Rampage during the seventh season of TUF and was defeated by Tim Credeur. He did open some eyes during the Credeur fight when many thought he would be dominated. He showed excellent stand up skills but wound up being submitted by Credeur late in the first round.

To be successful in this fight Cramer will have to keep Arroyo on his feet and try to impose his striking on him. Arroyo on the other hand, hopes to bring Cramer to the mat and catch him in some type of submission. Whichever way you look at it, this fight matches two UFC fighters with very little experience but a lot to prove.

Prediction – Arroyo over Cramer via 1st round submission (rear naked choke)

Jake O’Brien vs. Christian Wellisch (heavyweight bout)

The only heavyweight bout on the card will be an important one for both fighters. Both fighters are trying to get back on track after suffering losses in their previous fights in the UFC. Win or lose, without an impressive showing the UFC may just send both fighters packing.

O’Brien has not won in the UFC since a January 2007 upset over highly favored Heath Herring. Since that impressive victory he has lost two in a row both by way of TKO. His skill set forces him to stand and trade with his opponent which isn’t always a good thing. That was evident in his last fight when Cain Velasquez knocked O’Brien out two minutes into the fight.

Wellisch, a member of American Kickboxing Academy, needs this win UFC win as much if not more than O’Brien. After a much publicized dispute between AKA and UFC president Dana White over video gaming rights, Wellisch is probably fighting for his UFC life. Not to mention his last fight was a less than stellar performance when he was knocked out cold by a punch courtesy of Shane Carwin 44 seconds into the fight. If he holds any advantage it may be on the ground where he has 3 career submission victories.

With a great deal at stake it is sure to be an intriguing match. Jake O’Brien will try and pressure Wellisch and catch him with his KO power. Wellisch’s game plan may be much of the same. He may choose to stand and trade or possibly take the fight to the ground and work a submission.

Prediction – O’Brien over Wellisch via 2nd round TKO

Chris Wilson vs. John Howard (welterweight bout)

In this welterweight fight both competitors are riding a wave of confidence. Wilson, also known as “The Professor”, is 1-1 in the UFC and trying to make it two wins in a row against the UFC newcomer. John “Doomsday” Howard will make his octagon debut riding a 3 fight win streak coming in smaller organizations.

Wilson, a Team Quest fighter, is known as a well rounded fighter. He has knockout power, submission skills and a full gas tank with the ability to go all 15 minutes. In each of his UFC fights he demonstrated impressive skills by going the distance in both. His first fight was no small task when he took on Jon Fitch eventually losing a decision. He came back at UFC 87 in August of 2008 when he took the unanimous decision victory over a tough Steve Bruno.

“Doomsday” has fought both at 185 and 170 during his short career. His career has consisted of 14 fights where he compiled a 10-4 record. He will try and make Wilson his fourth win in a row. He has fought previously in relevant organizations such as IFL and Ring of Combat.

These two evenly matched fighters will try and take the next step in the welterweight division with a win. Wilson has a slight advantage in the experience department but Howard will try and not succumb to the bright lights of the UFC. They both have the ability to stand and trade for all three rounds which makes this preliminary bout an exciting one.

Prediction – Wilson over Howard via split decision

Manny Gamburyan vs. Thiago Tavares (lightweight bout)

One of the two lightweight fights on the night matches two UFC veterans. Both are veterans of the UFC each sporting a 50% winning percentage inside the octagon and virtually unbeatable outside of the organization. A fight that is certain to find its way to the ground is almost for sure a candidate for “Technical Fight of the Night” title.

Gamburyan, the cousin of UFC welterweight and UFC 94 competitor Karo Parisyan, is trying to right the ship from his UFC 87 loss to Rob Emerson. Emerson took virtually no time off the clock in dismantling “The Anvil” in 12 seconds with a series of punches. Before his most recent loss Gamburyan was impressive in his 2 UFC fights both wins over Jeff Cox and Nate Mohr. In his win over Cox, Manny choked him out with a guillotine choke and put an Achilles lock on Mohr. Needless to say Gamburyan is well versed in submissions.

Tavares, who hails from Brazil, is trying to recover from a 2 fight losing streak and losing 3 of his last 4 fights overall. The 24 year old Tavares almost certainly will try and take the fight to the ground where his success has been. Of his 13 career victories, 10 have come by way of submission. He does present a challenge for Gamburyan on the ground never being submitted in any of his fights.

This fight is almost certain to hit the ground and will probably stay there. If you like the technical side of MMA this is the fight to watch. Both fighters will work submissions until either they submit or time runs out in the third round. With neither fighter close to a title fight the winner of this fight tends to not make a significant move in the welterweight division.

Prediction – Gamburyan over Tavares via 2nd round submission (armbar)

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Jon Fitch vs. Akihiro Gono (welterweight bout)

The last of the preliminary bouts on the evening could very well be a main event in any other organization in the world. Some think that Fitch was placed on the undercard due to his management dispute with UFC president Dana White while others insist he was just a victim of a loaded card. Fitch will match up with a very experienced Akihiro Gono. Stage fright will not be an issue in this one; each fighter has seen the big stage more than once. Fitch has fought 9 times in the UFC and one for a title while Gono has seen fights in a wide variety of organizations including fighting 9 times in the now defunct PRIDE FC.

Another AKA product, Fitch will try and start another streak after his 8 fight win streak was stopped by Georges St. Pierre at UFC 87 in August. Before the title loss he reeled off wins against the likes of Diego Sanchez, Thiago Alves and Josh Burkman among others. He has also shown the ability to win in a variety of different ways. He has 4 (T) KO, 5 submission and 7 decision victories to his credit.

Gono is one of the more experienced competitors that the UFC has recently signed from Japan. Gono is 29-13-7 overall and 1-1 in the UFC. He started his UFC career in November of 2007 with a win over Tamdan McCrory, after many years with organizations such as PRIDE FC, DEEP, Shooto and Pancrase. He has since lost since that November 2007 win when Dan Hardy took a close split decision victory from him at UFC 89. Before he signed with the UFC he fought many prominent names including Matt Hughes, Mauricio “Shogun” Rua, Dan Henderson and Denis Kang.

On the undercard for the first time since March of 2007 Fitch will try and rebound with a win over Gono. Gono also wants to get a significant UFC win which he would do with a win over Jon Fitch. Both fighters will come well prepared and well conditioned for the other in a great lead-in fight for the main card.

Prediction – Fitch over Gono via unanimous decision

Nate Diaz vs. Clay Guida (lightweight bout)

Both Diaz and Guida are known to put on a great fight each time they compete. That should make for a great fight when these two meet in the octagon. Diaz will take a step up in competition when he sees Guida across from him inside the cage. Guida is known as a “gatekeeper” to measure the abilities of young fighters within the organization. He could shed the “gatekeeper” title with a win over Diaz.

Diaz, 5-0 in his UFC career, is known more for his submissions but is capable to knockout his opponent as well. He has shown his submission skills in his first 4 UFC fights with all of them ending in submission. However, in his last fight he was tested when Josh Neer took him the distance at UFC Fight Night 15 in September of 2008. Diaz was able to convince the judges enough to squeak out a close split decision win. The Ultimate Fighter alum has shown significant progress in each of his fights leading up to this one with journeyman Clay “The Carpenter” Guida.

Clay Guida is one of the hardest working fighters in MMA today. He has accumulated a 24-9 record with a 4-3 record within the UFC. He, like Diaz is well versed on the ground but also has the ability to stand and strike. He also is riding a streak with 2 straight wins over Sammy Schiavo and Mac Danzig. Never one to shy away from his opponent Guida will keep coming forward on Diaz the entire match.

The UFC did a great job in matching these two lightweights for the main card. Both fighters have a heart of steel and will not give up. If Guida is to have success he will probably want to stand with Diaz. On the other hand Diaz will have to work hard when striking with Guida. Up to this point in his career he has never been a victim of TKO or KO.

Prediction – Guida over Diaz via unanimous decision

Karo Parisyan vs. Dong Hyun Kim

This bout features two fighters wanting to make a statement in the crowded welterweight division. Parisyan has had a great deal of success in the UFC but was stopped in his last fight. Dong Hyun “Stun Gun” Kim has been very impressive since coming to the United States from South Korea winning his first two UFC fights.

Despite his last loss to Thiago Alves at UFC Fight Night 13 Parisyan has since signed another fight contract with the UFC. He fell victim to Alves’ knees and punches early in the second round in that April fight. Prior to that fight however he reeled off 4 wins in a row and 7 out of 8 overall.

Kim is one of the new stars of the UFC. He is still undefeated at 11-0-1 and 2-0 in the UFC. His UFC wins have come over Jason Tan and Matt Brown. Before the UFC he competed in the DEEP and Spirit MC organizations. He went 9-0-1 before signing with the UFC.

Kim looks to keep his impressive streak going but takes a significant step up in competition with Karo Parisyan. I see this fight being a back and forth battle. The winner will be the fighter who finishes with the final flurry of strikes. I see this fight going the distance.

Prediction – Parisyan over Kim via 3rd round TKO

Stephan Bonnar vs. Jon Jones (light heavyweight bout)

The return of Stephan Bonnar to the UFC comes against a virtual unknown. Bonnar last saw action over one year and three months ago at UFC 77. Since that fight he has battled a series of injuries to get back in the octagon. Jones wants to make his mark in the light heavyweight division.

Bonnar has fought some very tough opponents over his 3 ½ year UFC career. He has wins over light heavies such as Keith Jardine and James Irvin and losses over Forrest Griffin (2) and current champ Rashad Evans. He currently has a 2 fight win streak with wins over Mike Nickels and Eric Schafer. Bonnar likes to stand and bang with his opponents but is also skilled in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu.

Not much is known about Jon “Bones” Jones. He does have an undefeated record at 7-0 overall with his latest win coming in the UFC at UFC 87 over talented fighter Andre Gusmao. He fought Gusmao to a unanimous decision victory. He has 5 (T) KO, 1 submission, and 1 decision victory. Before the UFC, Jones fought six times for six different organizations.

Bonnar is a hard fighter to KO, which is Jones’ strength. I see Jones struggling in his second UFC fight and Bonnar letting go of some frustration on Jones. Bonnar holds the advantage in nearly every category.

Prediction – Bonnar over Jones via 1st round submission

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Lyota Machida vs. Thiago Silva (light heavyweight bout)

The other light heavyweight match features two of the best in the LHW division. Both fighters have shown very few weaknesses and precise striking abilities. Both Brazilians are undefeated with Machida being the more technical of the two and Silva with the devastating KO power.

Machida has a background in karate and it is evident when he competes. His five fight win streak includes decision wins over David Heath, Sam Hoger, Kaz Nakamura and Tito Ortiz. He also has a submission win over Sokoudjou at UFC 79 Nemesis. Before his contract was purchased by the UFC Machida already had tallied wins over BJ Penn, Stephan Bonnar, Rich Franklin and kickboxing legend Michael McDonald.

Silva has taken a more violent path up to this point in the UFC. Of his 13 total wins, 10 have come by way of (T) KO. The American Top Team member has wins over Antonio Mendes, Houston Alexander, Thomasz Drwal and James Irvin. Only one of his UFC fights has even gone to the second round.

Machida serves as the tallest task for Thiago Silva at this point in his career. Machida will want to make the fight long and try to pick Silva apart while Silva wants to do the opposite. He wants to get to Machida as quick as possible. I’m really looking forward to this fight almost as much as the main event.

Prediction – Machida over Silva via unanimous decision

Georges St. Pierre vs. BJ Penn

With all the publicity behind this fight it’s hard not to get excited watching these two go at it. They have been cordial when together but the body language tells a different story. The first time they met was a great fight when GSP won a close split decision but this time they both are in the prime of their career and a Welterweight title is at stake.

St. Pierre has been almost flawless in the UFC with a record of 11-2 overall. He has run his current win streak to four in a row with his last fight a tough but decisive title defense over Jon Fitch at UFC 87. Still only 27 years old, St. Pierre has few weaknesses and seems to get better in each of his last four fights. In fact, if it weren’t for Matt Serra (who beat GSP at UFC 65) GSP would be riding a ten fight win streak. In that fight Serra stopped GSP before he could execute his plan on Serra.

BJ Penn has been criticized in the past for some questionable training but recently all the talk has gone away with his current streak of 3 wins. The former welterweight champ and current lightweight champ would like to be the first to hold two belts at the same time in the UFC. Known more as a ground fighter he demonstrated excellent striking skills when he beat Sean Sherk at UFC 84 to capture the lightweight title.

This type of fight only comes around about once every few years in MMA. “Dream Matchups” rarely materialize into great fights but both champions will be at full strength and no lingering injuries reported. I can’t see this fight not living up to its hype. I just hope the UFC can produce more fights of this capacity.

Prediction – GSP over Penn via 4th round TKO

By Nick Russell
ProFighting-fans.com Staff Writer