Nakai's "Prophesy:" Hatsu Hioki and the Importance of his UFC Debut

In an excellent interview featured on the internet webseries The Grappling Dummy, Japanese MMA pioneer Yuki Nakai made a prophesy. He said that a Japanese fighter would soon travel from his homeland and make the world stand up and take notice of Japanese MMA. According to Nakai, 'Japanese people have quite a comfortable life. Its an Island and people are not motivated to leave. When a Japanese fighter comes along with an ambition, the scene will change. Japan is not a weak country. We have good techniques. Things will change when there is someone who has enough ambition.'

Yes, perhaps calling this a prophesy is reading a little too much into what Nakai said. But maybe there is some truth in his words. Perhaps some day soon a Japanese fighter will travel to the US and become a huge international sensation. Just for fun though, lets concider it a prophesy! So, if Nakai is correct, who might be the mistery fighter and in what organization will he make his move? This author has one particular fighter in mind. But we will get to that.

This Saturday past saw the biggest MMA organization in the world return to Brazil for the first time since 1998. It was a night in which fans were treated to exciting fights, brutal knockouts, and many memorable moments. One of those moments came during the main event, in which middleweight champion Anderson Silva squared off with the man Dana White called "the best fighter ever to come out of Japan," Yushin Okami. Could Okami be the man Nakai spoke of? Evidently not, as Silva destroyed Okami in less than two rounds, shattering his dream of becoming the first Japanese fighter to hold a UFC title belt. So if not Okami, then who?

Until recently there were few Japanese fighters in the UFC, but an effort has been made over the past year or so to add several popular Japanese fighters to the UFC roster. Notable recent additions to the UFC lineup include Yoshihiro Akiyama, Kid Yamamoto, Michihiro Omigawa, and Takamori Gomi. While these fighters have had some success in the UFC, all of them have fallen short in their recent fights. Akiyama was fiercely knocked out by Vitor Belfort, Kid was out worked by Demetrious Johnson, Omigawa was robbed in a decision to Darren Elkins, and Gomi was submitted by Clay Guida. For that reason, neither of these men can be Nakai's "chosen one."

Let us consider now the outcome of recent fights featuring popular Japanese fighter's in another large Western MMA promotion, Strikeforce. Before its acquisition by Zuffa, the UFC parent company, Strikeforce began promoting crossover events with DREAM, the largest MMA promotion in Japan. One highly publicized event saw the DREAM lightweight champion Shinya Aoki face off with the Strikeforce champion Gilbert Melendez, in a fight where Aoki was thoroughly defeated. Another, more recent, fight had Japanese superstar Tatsuya Kawajiri duking it out with Melendez. Again, it was the Strikeforce champ who came out on top.

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With the recent trend of Japanese fighters losing high profile fights in North American promotions, it has become easy for fans to discredit the quality of fighters coming out of the land of the rising sun. Additionally, this trend does not make a good case for Nakai and his prophesy. There is, however, one fighter who has recently signed with the UFC but who has not yet had the opportunity to show off his skillset and prove that "Japan is not a weak country," but a country whose fighters are a force to be reconned with. The fighter I am referring to is Japanese featherweight Hatsu Hioki, a former Shooto, Sengoku, and TKO champion, with wins over Nova Uniao's Marlon sandro, Shooto legend Rumina Sato, and recent UFC number one contender Mark Hominick. Most credible MMA newsites have him ranked a as one of the top five fighters in his weight class.

Watching Hioki fight is like watching poetry in motion. He possesses some of the slickest jiu jitsu skills you are likely to see in MMA. Hioki will attack constantly from any position, and when his opponent defends his attack effective, he seems to always have a counter ready. Even when facing world class grapplers such as Baret Yoshida, Hioki never fails to keep the pressure on with constant submission attempts. He is notorious for his use of wrist control, similar to the Nogueira brothers, as a means to set up triangle chokes, whether from the guard or while mounted, as he did in his victory over Ronnie Mann. He is also one of few men in MMA to use the rubber guard effectively.

Hioki mixes his jiu jitsu skills with strong standup. Hioki makes use of his long limbs to keep his opponents at a distance. He uses his jab and and a variety of kicks to pick his opponents appart before taking the fight to the ground. When he feels outmatched on the feet, Hioki usually decides to duck under a jab and shoot for a double or single leg, or to clinch and look for a trip takedown or throw. Even when he cannot get his opponent to the ground, he is effective with strikes from the greco clinch or knees from the Thai clinch. Like many fighters who are trained in the Shooto style, however, his guard is a little lose and he hangs his hands a fairly low, which often leaves him vulnerable to straight punches. Luckily for Hioki he can take a shot.

With such a great skillset, Hioki may well be the man with the "ambition" to "change the scene" when it comes to Japanese fighters fighting overseas. It will be interesting to see how Hioki deals with fighting in a cage, as he is used to the a ring. Additionally, Hioki might run into another problem in the UFC which he has not had much experience with in the past: elite wrestlers who specialize in taking their opponent to the ground and neutralizing Brazilian jiu jitsu. He should not have that problem in his first fight in the UFC, however, as he is fighting George Roop, a man not known for his wrestling but for his stand up.

Roop does pose problems for Hioki though. For instance, he is a good striker with long reach, meaning Hioki might not be able to pick him apart from the outside with his jab and kicks as he likes to do. Hioki will more than likely try to clinch up and bring the fight to the ground where he can start chaining submissions together. Roop had difficulty in the first round of his last fight against Josh Grispy, when Grispy took him down and worked his jiu jitsu. Hioki would do well to follow that same approach, and in the end, if all goes well for the Japanese star, Hioki will secure a victory and, perhaps, take the first step in fulfilling Nakai's prophesy.

By Matt King
ProFighting-fans.com Staff Writer