TUF 13 Finale
The main card of The Ultimate Fighter 13 Finale has some excellent match ups. What I like about TUF finales is the garage/ballroom feel of the staging. There is nothing quite like an intimate shit-kicking.
The headliner is a lightweight battle between Clay Guida (27-11) and Anthony Pettis (12-1). Pettis’s acrobatic kick-to- the-face- off-the-fence win over Benson Henderson has become the highlight reel of late. In that fight, Pettis demonstrated an energy level equal to that of Guida (commonly referred to as the energizer bunny). How the fighters manifest it will tell the tale. Looking back on Guida’s loss to Florian--- an impeccable striker who matched Guida on the ergometer--- I see Pettis winning this fight by TKO in round three.
The fight for The Ultimate Fighter pits Tony Ferguson (10-2) against Ramsay Nijem (4-1). As I mentioned in my previous article, this fight will not be determined by what we saw in the fighter’s performances in TUF 13, but in their training camps leading to the Finale. Can Nijem find a strategy to deal with Ferguson being an elusive target? Can he develop his striking to a level where it can set up a takedown? And can Ferguson prepare for Nijem’s quickness if the fight does go down, in order to avoid having his back taken?
Nijem must come in with a stand-up game intended to tire Ferguson over the first couple of rounds, to set up takedowns later in the fight. Ferguson is a very strong fighter, and takedowns early will likely be futile. If Nijem wins, it will be by submission in round three. If Ferguson wins, look for a TKO in the second, a la his win over O'Neil.
Kyle Kingsbury (10-2) and Fabio Maldonado (18-3) fight at light heavyweight. Kingsbury has four fights in the UFC, starting with a loss to Lawlor. He followed that up with a split decision and a unanimous decision before KOing Ricardo Romero in 21 seconds. Suffice it to say Kingsbury is improving. Maldonado hasn’t lost since late 2007, but this is only his second UFC fight. In his first he KOed MCSweeney early in round three. Although Kingsbury has less experience, this will be a stand-up war in which his power will eventually take over.
> Check out the UFC apparel & hats and Punishment MMA clothing & merchandise online through ProFighting-fans.com!
Chris Cope (4-1) vs Chuck O’Neil (8-3) is almost as interesting as Ferguson vs Nijem, but not quite. Here are two fighters who were often counted out by writers, as well as the rest of the TUF cast, yet their mental toughness brought them to the semi-finals and to this fight. I like Cope here, not because he’s tougher, but because his physical stature will cause problems for O'Neil, and O’Neil hasn't the arsenal to deal with that. Cope by unanimous decision.
Ed Herman (15-8) vs Tim Credeur (12-3) at middleweight has great potential. Maia, Belcher and Simpson have all handed Herman losses of late, so if he's not hungry now he never will be. Herman’s last win was against David Loiseau (no comment). Credeur has three wins in the UFC compared with one loss, which was his last fight against Nate Quarry. This may be Herman’s last kick at the can, and I see it as a stepping stone for Credeur, who fan’s like a lot. Credeur by TKO, round 2.
As with other TUF season’s, it isn’t only the winner we will need to follow in years to come. Ferguson, Nijem, O’Neil and Cope all hold promise, and will be given more opportunities if they show well on Saturday.
TUF has proven over the years to be one of the most successful reality shows on TV, one that won’t likely tire viewers, like Survivor or The Bachelor have. Next season, TUF is bringing back the need for the cast to fight their way into the house, which is a good move indeed. That had become my favorite aspect of TUF, and I never figured out why they changed it.
Oh, one last thing: The fights involving the TUF members will be close. Place money on my picks at your peril.
By Renko Styranka
ProFighting-fans.com MMA Staff Writer
The Ultimate Fighter logo used with permission from the UFC